By: Aarogya Mohan Kaphle
The author is a third-year bachelor's student at the Jindal School of International Affairs. He can be reached at 22jsia-amkaphle@jgu.edu.in
Image: Snapshot of the Elections Newsletter
As the Sri Lankan public elected left-leaning politician Anura Kumara Dissanayake as the new President of Srilanka in September 2024, there are ongoing debates on both conviction and scepticism about the future of the country. During the election campaign, Dissanayake made threefold promises to the citizens which included economic revitalization, addressing pressing challenges like poverty and corruption and reassessment of the International Monetary Fund bailout. (Dutta, 2024) Against this backdrop, this brief seeks to provide analytical commentary on the aftermath of Sri Lanka's Presidential Election while examining the domestic scenario, and prospective foreign policy outlook along with regional and international implications.
Domestic Crisis and Interest Groups
In the past, ethnic and religious issues used to be some dominant agendas in the Sri Lankan Election. But in recent years as the country plunged into severe fiscal uncertainty, Sri Lankan voters preferred domestic governance and economic recovery. (Krishnan, 2024) Since 2022, the country has been grappling with issues of depleted foreign currency reserve, high inflation and the burden of excessive public debt. The crisis was exacerbated due to some of the flawed government policies such as subsidy increments, tax cuts and prohibition on fertilizer import. (Bajpaee, 2023) Former President Ranil Wickremesinghe brought a significant rescue package from the IMF but the country's economy is still struggling for a full-fledged recovery. In these circumstances, the major litmus test of Dissanayake lies in the cautious handling of austerity measures enacted by earlier governments and creating a conducive environment for the working class who were hit hard due to economic turmoil. The other issues at stake for the current leadership are mainstreaming political representation of the Tamil minority, addressing the root cause of ethnic conflict and undergoing constitutional reforms in tandem with the recommendation put forward by the Office of the United Nations High Commission for Human Rights. (Ethirajan, 2024) Apart from that, the Dissanayake will also have to encounter challenges from opposition parties and business groups while implementing its agendas. He will particularly face problems from the opposition in the parliament while enacting legislation considering the low parliamentary base of his party. Furthermore, the business community is concerned about his possible protectionist approach to the economy and repercussions that may arise while renegotiating the terms and conditions of the IMF Loans. (Kugelman, 2024) On top of all these, Dissanayake has to deal with serious internal challenges such as tax burden, brain drain and poor household spending and finally prove his self-claimed 'social democrat' image and Marxist-Leninist policy inclination. (Weerakoon, 2024) It will be interesting to see how the new political leadership will handle this crisis via policy fine-tuning, implementing structural reforms and fixing domestic bottlenecks.
The Foreign Policy Posture
The foreign policy approach of the new president is likely to strike a balance between India and China. Given the geopolitical significance of the country and severe economic stagnation, the government is expected to adopt a progressive foreign policy emphasizing economic growth and stability. The conventional wisdom in Sri Lanka is that if there are serious contingency and security threats, India will step in and provide aid. (The Indian Express, 2024) However, there is a paradox to this for a variety of reasons. The recent ousting of Sheikh Hasina in Bangladesh has been considered a major blow to India's neighbourhood policy. The political turbulence in Bangladesh has created a vacuum and uncertainty about the future policy trajectory among Indian policymakers. New Delhi is currently seeking a reliable partner in its neighbourhood orbit to fill that gap. With India's undesirable communist leader coming into power, Srilanka couldn't fill that void in the neighbourhood. The major anxiety of India is Dissanayake's affiliated party and the ideology and foreign policy orientation rooted within it.
The Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna party (JVP) which he leads, has a close association with the Chinese Communist Party and adopts an antagonistic approach towards India. (Amarasinghe, 2024) On the one hand, China has gained considerable clout in the country through infrastructure lending, investment and military assistance. On the flip side, JVP is reluctant towards wind power projects with the involvement of Indian conglomerate Adani Group. Furthermore, the party also opposed the investigation of war crimes that happened during the Civil War between the Sri Lankan government and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in which India has a major stake. (Singh, 2024)
Regional and Global Implications
Geographically, Srilanka is well positioned at the heart of the Indian Ocean Region and lies at a crossroads between South Asia and other regions of the world which makes it significant for the maritime trade route. While Srilanka has to navigate the turbulent geopolitical climate, it is in her best interest to strategically manoeuvre and hedge with its major partners. For this, diplomacy coupled with a delicate balancing act will only enable the country to become resilient enough to lift from a fierce regional environment and pressing internal challenges. Srilanka should be firmly committed to maintaining peace and stability in the Indian Ocean Region to attain trust and credibility from its major partners like India, USA and Japan. It should not permit a foreign power to alter the status quo in the region using its land. Currently, two issues involve the interests of both bilateral and multilateral actors. The first one is about the support of both major bilateral creditors such as India, China and Japan and multilateral partners like the IMF for debt restructuring negotiations. The other issue concerns the climate crisis with 33% population inhabiting vulnerable coastlines. Similarly, threats like rising sea levels, marine heatwaves, natural calamities and ocean acidification have arisen in recent years. (Owen-Burge, 2024) To withstand this challenge, the island nation will require significant support measures from both the regional organizations and the international community in both the realm of adaptation and mitigation. This mode of strategic actions will also allow Srilanka to leverage its competitiveness, mitigate the perplexing threats and finally build on regional connectivity tinged with a robust supply chain network while capitalizing from the geopolitical interplay of foreign powers.
To conclude, the management of Sri Lanka's current socio-economic crisis requires a cautious, planned and calculated governance approach as a part of its political leadership. This calls for a robust strategic envisioning, recovery roadmap and public policy framework for effective deliberation and visible outcomes. Together with the support of the international community, domestic stakeholders and development partners, Sri Lankan establishments can navigate the current macroeconomic challenge and carve a path toward the nation's foreseeable future.
References
Amarasinghe, P. (2024, August 12). India & the military: Two factors that may affect JVP’s rise to power - Colombo Telegraph. Colombo Telegraph. https://www.colombotelegraph.com/index.php/india-the-military-two-factors-that-may-affect-jvps-rise-to-power/
Bajpayee, C. (2024, October 2). Austerity measures are on trial in Sri Lanka’s first election since its economic collapse. Chatham House.
Dutta, S. (2024, September 25). Sri Lanka’s new leftist president signals a sharp political shift. Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada. https://www.asiapacific.ca/publication/sri-lankas-new-leftist-president-signals-sharp-political
Ethirajan, A. (2024, September 22). In a political paradigm shift, Sri Lanka leans to the left. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3wp1p32endo
Krishnan, M. (2024, September 26). Will a new president shift Sri Lanka’s foreign policy? dw.com. https://www.dw.com/en/will-a-new-president-shift-sri-lankas-approach-to-india-and-china/a-70322311
Kugelman, M. (2024, September 25). Sri Lanka Election: New President Dissanayake may face uphill battle. Foreign Policy. https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/09/25/sri-lanka-election-president-dissanayake-challenges/
Weerakoon, D. (2024, January 16).
Elections cast a shadow of uncertainty over Sri Lanka’s economic recovery. East Asia Forum.
Singh, G. (2024, September 26). Sri Lanka’s new President Anura Kumara Dissanayake could pose geopolitical challenges for India. The Secretariat. https://thesecretariat.in/article/sri-lanka-s-new-president-anura-kumara-dissanayake-could-pose-geopolitical-challenges-for-india
The Indian Express. (2024, September 30). Explained Live: What The Election Results Mean For Sri Lanka And Neighborhood [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/live/96PTbOrLD9s?si=8C0sjzE1mekSqOqC
Owen-Burge, C. (2024, June 5). A community’s fight for resilience: Saving Sri Lanka’s vulnerable marine ecosystems - Climate Champions. Climate Champions. https://climatechampions.unfccc.int/a-communitys-fight-for-resilience-saving-sri-lankas-vulnerable-marine-ecosystems/
The views expressed in this article are those of the author (s). They do not reflect the views or opinions of Diplomania or its members.
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