By: Taneesha Jain
The author is a second-year master’s student at Jindal School of International Affairs. She can be reached at
INTRODUCTION
Mexico’s political evolution has been marked by a significant transition from a single-party rule under the Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) or Institutional Revolutionary Party which dominated the political arena for seventy-one years from 1929 to 2000 to a more decentralized and fragmented political landscape. During PRI’s reign, the country witnessed several national projects that introduced transactional politics between federal and local governments. This model transformed over time, becoming more localized and decentralized, having issues such as drug trafficking, corruption and crime permeated into the system.
As the country prepared for its pivotal 2024 elections, the political landscape is charged with new dynamics that will not only shape the country’s future but also have imperative repercussions throughout the continent. More than a contest for political power, the elections presented a critical juncture for addressing issues such as gender representation, political violence and regional geopolitics. Notably, for the first time in Mexico’s history, two leading presidential candidates were women: Claudia Sheinbaum and Xóchitl Gálvez whose candidacies signify potential placement of femininity and gender politics at the forefront of electoral discourse.
Claudia Sheinbaum, a climate scientist and former mayor of Mexico City, became Mexico’s first female president after a historic landslide victory, winning 58.3-60.7 percent of the vote, the highest in the country's democratic history. The ruling coalition secured a two-thirds supermajority in Congress, enabling them to pass constitutional reforms unchallenged. Opposition candidate Xóchitl Gálvez conceded after preliminary results showed her receiving 26.6-28.6 percent of the vote, while Morena also claimed victory in the Mexico City mayoral race.
The article will examine key themes including the surge of political violence during the Mexican elections, the significance of the first female president in advancing gender equality, an analysis of the new president’s autonomy and policy approach beyond being seen as a mere successor, and finally, the impact of U.S.-Mexico relations on the elections, along with potential strategies for strengthening bilateral ties in the future.
POLITICAL VIOLENCE DURING ELECTIONS
“We can’t even go outside without fear. Even if you’re not looking for trouble, you could just be in the wrong place at the wrong time. It’s dangerous all the time.”-Mercedez, Mexican citizen
The 2024 Mexican elections took an escalation in terms of political violence, surpassing the levels seen in 2018 and 2021 federal elections. This violence included assassinations and targeted attacks on candidates and other political figures with at least 553 candidates requested state protection after receiving threats whereas others withdrew from the race. Before and even after the election period, all the three legislative, state and municipal elections, 330 incidents of violences were recorded according to ACLED including 37 killing of candidates, 131 threatened and 17 kidnapped.
Moreover, most of the attacks were carried out at the political figures running for local office such as mayor and municipal council and the remaining for federal offices and former candidates. It is important to note that no such attempts were made on any of the candidates standing for the position of President. Also, the targeted violence also concentrated at the local level in regions such as Guanajuato, Guerrero and Michoacán, being particularly affected. In these areas, civil servants especially belonging to judicial and security and public administration treasurers were the most frequent targets of non-elected officials.
Political violence exacerbated by drug cartel is not a novel affair in Mexico. The infamous incident of Ricardo Taja, one of Morena’s leading hopefuls for city mayor in Acapulco brought further distress. Guerrero emerged as one of the most dangerous regions for candidates, illustrating the extent to which cartel influence distorted the electoral landscape. The names of candidates were removed from the ballot via the bullet which results in voters being forced to choose candidates who serve best for the organized crimes rather than the needs of their communities. Even while ballots were being counted, the attacks continued.
The violence persisted even after election day, with attacks on both successful and unsuccessful candidates. For example, the murder of Yolanda Sánchez Figueroa, the mayor of Cotija in Michoacán, occurred shortly after the election, underscoring the ongoing threat to political figures. These two principal events tell us as to how organized crime dictated the political outcomes and how it has a firm grip on local political systems in the country. This trend poses serious risks to governance and the safety of those involved in the political process, reinforcing the need for comprehensive strategies to protect democratic institutions and reduce cartel influence in regional politics.
CONTINUITY WITH CHANGE?
Hemos hecho posible la continuidad y el avance de la Cuarta Transformación. Me comprometo con ustedes a que no les voy a fallar. ¡Hay historia, hay patria, hay pueblo y hay compromiso! - Claudia Scheinbaum, President of Mexico.
(“We have made possible the continuity and progress of the fourth transformation. I commit to you that I will not let you down. There is history, there is homeland, there is people, and there is commitment.”)
Source: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/06/03/americas/mexico-claudia-sheinbaum-profile-intl-hnk/index.html
Claudia Sheinbaum, seen as a continuation of Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s (AMLO) presidency, vowed to uphold his ‘fourth transformation’ or ‘4T’ agenda, primarily focusing on reducing poverty and inequality as well as to end government corruption. In a sign of their alignment, she named to her cabinet many of López Obrador’s confidantes, including his finance minister, his public security minister, his former and current foreign affairs ministers. A speculation about how she will be different than AMLO is questionable because during the campaigning period, she was endorsing Lopez Obrador’s policies including his support for oil companies. Often portrayed as AMLO’s “puppet,” Sheinbaum ran her campaign under the slogan “continuity with change”.
She also stated to continue with the implementation of constitutional changes, which we witnessed during September this year- the controversial amendment of the juridical system whereby the election of the all the judges and members of Supreme court will happen through popular vote along with the introduction of ‘faceless judges. This reform faced criticism and protest due to two main reasons- undermining the defendant’s right to a fair trial and reducing the chances of checking presidential authority. This also has the potential to create uncertainty in the business world causing Mexico peso to plummet against the dollar. Mexico also approved a reform that gives the military control of the civilian-led national guard. Other constitutional amendments awaiting approval include reforms that would reduce government transparency and expand automatic pretrial detention.
Carlos Ramirez, a consultant at Integralia claimed to Al Jazeera that Mexican presidency under Sheinbaum will be more orderly, organized, and planned with a more technical profile among the officials in the cabinet. He feels confident about her comprehending things differently and having a far-reaching vision which will not be limited to the local level. Although she faces criticism for her close alignment with AMLO, she insists that she will implement policies independently.
Claudia Sheinbaum’s leadership style is expected to be more structured and data-oriented than AMLO’s. Experts believe she could bring a more orderly, technically proficient approach to governance, potentially enhancing Mexico’s international standing. Looking at her past experiences, her timely and decisive actions as the mayor of Mexico City, during Covid-19 such as limiting business hours, increasing testing capacities and bringing out more awareness among the population of 9 million, a step which was not the case by AMLO at the national level. Plus, she belongs to an older and solid left tradition unlike Lopez, who is a nationalistic and populist leader.
Regarding security, Sheinbaum aims to address the root causes of violence and criminal activity, acknowledging the challenges posed by organized crime (gangs are extorting everything from gas stations to avocado growers). She also plans to rebuild relationships with communities affected by violence, a shift from AMLO’s often confrontational tone. She has spoken about the need for multilateral agreements for Mexican climate crisis and strengthened civilian police in Mexico despite endorsing militarization. Like AMLO, she will work with the U.S. to manage migration issues but aims to take a more data-driven, multilateral approach to climate action.
In terms of gender issues, Sheinbaum distinguishes herself from AMLO who frequently mocked feminist movements and accused them of being manipulated by adversaries, as she will chart a different path in this area. Her claim to become the first female president of Mexico after 200 years of democracy in the country will have a great focus on bringing equal rights and opportunities for women and prioritizing the issue of femicide, something that will be discussed briefly in the later part of the article.
In terms of energy, as an environmental-scientist, she will be calling for more electric-powered public transit, promoting the use of and production of electric vehicles and renewable energy production through solar, wind and hydropower. Notably, López Obrador actively blocked renewable energy projects during his presidency. At the same time, Sheinbaum has lauded one of López Obrador’s signature initiatives: a new multibillion dollar oil refinery known as Dos Bocas. The project, which Sheinbaum lauded as “majestic,” is plagued by cost overruns and remains far from fully operational. How Sheinbaum will deal with the refinery remains an open question.
FEMININITY AND GENDER EQUALITY, TO WHAT EXTENT?
"It's time for transformation, it's time for women."
"I'm a mother, a grandmother, a scientist and a woman of faith, and from today, by the will of the Mexican people, the president,"- Claudia Scheinbaum, President of Mexico.
Claudia Sheinbaum’s victory as Mexico’s first female and Jewish president marks a major milestone in the nation’s political landscape. Moreover, her win signifies progress for women in the political sphere, coming seventy years after women won the right to vote in Mexico. The electoral race came down to two women, Sheinbaum and Gálvez, but Mexico's prevailing machismo culture still pushed both to explain their credibility and eligibility as a potential President.
AMLO had publicly fallen out with the feminist groups of the country on the issue of violence and disappearances. With Claudia, it is expected to have a change in the scenario. She has asked for a federal definition of femicide because different entities have different perceptions making it difficult to get proper statistics. Also, she has claimed to prioritize femicide and gender-based violence for prosecution. It is to be seen how President Sheinbaum responds to these criticisms and translates her promises into action.
Mexico has recently made strides in women's representation in government, electing its first female Supreme Court president, a female governor of the central bank, and achieving gender parity in Congress. Yet the fight for gender equality has advanced unevenly. Mexico is a country still rattled by high rates of femicide. Government data shows that, on average, 10 women and girls are killed every day by partners or family members. A survey by the country's statistics agency in 2022 found that more than 70% of 50.5 million women and girls aged 15 and older had experienced some kind of violence, up four percentage points from the previous survey in 2016.
Sheinbaum's rise to power signals hope for greater female empowerment in a country where violence against women remains pervasive. Despite promoting policies that may militarize public security that will increase safety concerns of women, her government has committed to address issues regarding gender inequalities. Her proposed program called as ‘National Care System’ aimed at promoting development and autonomy of women by supporting unpaid care work. Sheinbaum said as president she would create an anti-femicide prosecutor’s office, a measure she implemented when she was mayor of Mexico City. Moreover, the night before the election, Sheinbaum also emphasized her role as a mother and grandmother, framing her leadership in a personal context. On her second full day in office, Sheinbaum said her government had proposed reforms that aim to articulate and broaden women's rights, including a constitutional guarantee of equal pay for equal work.
Critics point out that Sheinbaum has been vague on some issues like abortion rights, which has drawn feminist backlash. Nevertheless, her past record in Mexico City shows her commitment to addressing violence against women, where she declared an emergency for such violence, investing in policing, investigations, and victim services.
COMPLEX DYNAMICS OF MEXICO-U.S. RELATIONS
“The U.S.-Mexico dialogue has become a bit of a kabuki theater, with senior-level leaders professing great satisfaction, but operational-level government officials prohibited from cooperating more closely and both sides feeling frustration.”- John Feeley, who served as U.S. deputy chief of mission and chargé d’affaires in Mexico City
In her first speech as president-elect, she elucidated the anticipation of a relationship with the United States, based on friendship, mutual respect, and equality, pledging to defend Mexicans abroad. However, her relations with the U.S. seemed to kick start in a tense manner. The judicial reform led to a freeze in $35 billion by US companies’ investment projects and concerns regarding democracy and bilateral trade relations were raised by Ken Salazar, the U.S. ambassador to Mexico. Equally troubling are other potential constitutional amendments such as the dissolution of Mexico’s autonomous agencies eroding nation’s democratic path. Additionally, AMLO’s recent decision to put relations with the U.S. embassy on "pause" adds to the strain while devoid of formal diplomatic meaning.
A key issue on the horizon is the review of the USMCA in 2026. Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to prioritize labor and environmental standards, while Donald Trump could push for reshoring U.S. supply chains. Sheinbaum and her advisors argue that reshoring may harm U.S. competitiveness and raise inflation.
Despite these challenges, the U.S. remains Mexico’s largest trading partner, 80 % of Mexico’s exports to the US are intermediate goods crucial to American competitiveness. Apart from Canada and Mexico, no other nation can enter the US without traversing either which provides a wonderful opportunity to the latter to maintain strategic relations with the U.S. Furthermore, this interdependence is particularly crucial as the U.S. faces increasing competition from China, making the stability of the U.S.-Mexico relationship vital for both nations’ strategic interests. Moreover, positive developments such the ongoing Otay Mesa II port of entry project at the U.S.-Mexico border and investments by companies like AWS in Querétaro (continental hub for technology) mark crucial step in the relationship.
Sheinbaum and her close advisors think that reshoring their supply chains back to the US could result in higher operational costs and reduction of global competitiveness of American finished goods and potentially driving up inflation in the US. Although governments may not directly control corporate investment, they can erect trade barriers and provide fiscal incentives for companies to remain on U.S. soil. Also, H.E. Ken Salazar said on Thursday, 17th October that there is no pause in the strong relations between the Mexican government and the U.S. embassy in the country, countering the previous AMLO claim.
Security collaboration between Mexico and the U.S. will need a strategic overhaul, focusing on stronger cooperation on development issues, particularly migration and its root causes. The border, a crucial point for trade, security, and migration, presents an opportunity for infrastructure and technological investments to address these issues separately and effectively. Sheinbaum might leverage her experience as Mexico City mayor, where she collaborated with U.S. law enforcement to reduce crime and bring down homicides, to advocate for renewed U.S.-Mexico security partnerships. This approach could encourage the radical wing of Morena to accept that cross-border crime requires cooperation and intervention.
The United States should take the opportunity to approach President-elect Sheinbaum and offer to rekindle strong U.S.-Mexico security and counternarcotics cooperation, as was tried during the preliminary period of the Merida Initiative. Strengthening this partnership could benefit Mexico by enhancing its security and intelligence frameworks. By channeling security assistance toward developing robust judicial and law enforcement institutions, both countries could more effectively tackle violence, curb corruption, and promote greater transparency.
CONCLUSION
Claudia Sheinbaum's presidency represents a transformative moment for Mexico, as she navigates complex challenges in political violence, corruption, and gender equality. Her success will depend on balancing continuity with innovation, ensuring her policies are not merely extensions of past administrations but truly independent and progressive. As the first female president of Mexico, Sheinbaum's leadership carries the weight of expectation to advance gender equality, challenge deeply ingrained societal norms and promote policies that uplift women across the nation.
Additionally, her handling of the U.S.-Mexico relationship will be crucial in shaping Mexico's economic and political future. With tensions arising from issues like judicial reforms and bilateral trade, Sheinbaum must strive for a balanced approach that safeguards Mexican sovereignty while fostering strategic cooperation with the U.S., especially in areas like security, trade, and climate change.
Her approach to organized crime, transparency in governance, and the strengthening of democratic institutions will also be closely watched. The potential for her administration to redefine Mexico's role on the global stage lies in her ability to implement meaningful reforms, ensuring that the nation’s trajectory is shaped by inclusivity, accountability, and innovation. Ultimately, Sheinbaum's presidency can be looked like an opportunity to drive Mexico towards a more just, equitable, and forward-looking society, where domestic progress and international partnerships go hand in hand.
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