By: Manoj Kumar Panigrahi
The author is an Assistant Professor and Director of the Centre for Northeast Asia at Jindal School of International Affairs, O.P. Jindal Global University.
Image: Snapshot of the Newsletter
The year 2024 can be dubbed the “Election Year” as multiple elections are being held throughout, starting from the one in Bangladesh. This piece will cover the Presidential elections conducted in Taiwan on 13 January 2024. The elections led to a free and peaceful power transfer from one party to another. The 2024 elections were a three-way race between Kuomintang (KMT), the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), and the newly formed Taiwan People’s Party (TPP,) which was formed in 20.19 The candidates in the race were Hou You-yi, the New Taipei City Mayor representing KMT, Lai Ching-te for DPP, and Ko Wen-je for TPP. The election was the first time in Taiwan that a three-way race for the nation’s top office was being raced.
Candidates on Race
Each candidate had their views on how their administration would look once elected. Hou’s viewpoint on Taiwan’s future is by maintaining the status quo by rejecting independence, which aligns with the general Taiwan public view. Hou’s policy aligned with former President Ma Ying-jeou’s policy on cross-strait, who maintained that ROC was the only China and his home. Militarily, Hou aimed to restore the four-month-old military conscription and made a stark difference in DPP’s policy, which introduced the one-year conscription—by opting for four-month-old service, Hou hoped to signal to China and its domestic audience that he aims for normalcy in the region.
On the contrary, Lai’s policy proposals were based on his political experiences, holding several key positions under President Tsai Ing-wen. Given his pro-independence stances and views, Lai is seen as a “deep green” politician within the DPP. In the past, his statements have caused controversy. His statement on being a “pragmatic worker for Taiwanese independence” and a “politician who supports Taiwanese independence” and “will never change this stance, no matter what office I hold” raised eyebrows in China and as well as the USA. Later, as DPP chairman, Lai also mentioned, “Taiwan is already a sovereign and independent nation and therefore has no need to declare its independence”.
On the other hand, Ko Wen-je’s TPP was seen as an alternate between the KMT and DPP. Ko’s experience as a politician stood as an independent candidate when he ran for the Taipei city mayor successfully twice from 2014-2022. Ko's cross-strait policies involved a “mix of deterrence and dialogue”. He believes that while considering Taiwan’s relation with China, it should be based on new ground realities rather than on the old principles signed in 1992, popularly known as the “1992 consensus”.
16th president
Of the three candidates, DPP’s Lai Ching-te emerged victorious in a three-way race for the country’s topmost position. This was DPP’s third consecutive victory in the presidential position, marking the first in Taiwan’s history. The inaugural speech of President Lai was titled, “Building a democratic, peaceful, and prosperous new Taiwan”.
President Lai’s speech touched upon several worldwide issues, such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas conflict, and also included increasingly Chinese military manoeuvres around Taiwan. Lai was also thankful to the USA for its recent bill on the Indo-Pacific Security Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2014. The bill promises US$1.9 billion to enhance defence capabilities for Taiwan and the other allies the USA has in the region. There is a slight difference in comparing Lai Ching Te’s presidential inaugural speech with the past two. Lai’s mention of peace, China, and Taiwan was the highest compared to the past.
PRC’s Response
The response to Lai’s winning the presidential race from the PRC was swift. Na uru, on 15 January 2024, withdrew itself from recognizing ROC and accepted PRC as a country, bringing the list of Taiwan’s diplomatic allies to just 12. China has also increased its military manoeuvres around Taiwan's controlled air and water space. It has led to increased pressure on Taiwanese leadership and the military. Right after the presidential speech, China’s Eastern Theatre Command, on 23 May 2024, declared the conducting of “Joint Sword-2024” joint military exercises along with his other arms body, which some analysts have termed “punishment drills”.
The future of the Cross-strait lies at a thin thread. The importance of Taiwan and its semiconductor production facilities to the world is immense. As the world is slowly recovering from the COVID-19-led disruption of supply chains, another conflict that led to trouble in the supply chain of semiconductors or any primary goods will create more havoc and can lead to the decline of growth rates of the countries in the region and beyond. It is going to be difficult also for the other neighbouring countries in the region such as Japan, and the Philippines who lie closer to the Taiwan Strait raise the risk of them getting involved in a potential conflict scenario between Taiwan and China.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author (s). They do not reflect the views or opinions of Diplomania or its members.
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