By: Prachi Srivastava
The author is a second-year master’s student at Jindal School of International Affairs. She can be reached at
Namibia, a Southern African state which became independent in the year 1990, has improved its electoral practices drastically in the recent years. The political dynamics of the country have changed much over the last eight years due to both independent candidates as well as new political parties coming into the forefront and a sharp fall in SWAPO ruling party dominance. This piece covers the 2014 and 2019 national election cycles, culminating in 2024 election. The changing contours of Namibia's political scene, where newcomers have emerged while the traditional parties are grappling with new challenges, have created a more competitive atmosphere. Thus, the article sums up some of the critically important developments Namibia's elections went through over this time particularly concerning the eroding of SWAPO's unchallenged hegemony. Namibia continued its tradition of peaceful elections in both presidential and parliamentary elections in 2014. An important innovation in the polls was the introduction of electronic voting machines, which has so far made Namibia one of the few African countries to employ them. This made the elections outstanding. Voter turnout was around 71%, and observers from abroad as well as within the country described the elections as free and fair, revealing a high degree of popular participation in the political process.
The 2014 elections were significant for the fact that they entrenched SWAPO hegemony in politics. Its nominated candidate, Hage Geingob, won his first presidential term after polling a landslide 87% of the vote in the November 28, 2014 presidential election. Only 5% of the vote went to McHenry Venaani of the Democratic Turnhalle Alliance (DTA), his closest rival. This overwhelming win demonstrated SWAPO's continued appeal, especially with elderly voters who stuck with the party because of its historical involvement in Namibia's independence movement. In addition to this, SWAPO's control of the National Assembly was consolidated through the parallel legislative elections. The party took 80% of the vote and, out of 96 seats, won 77, leaving only 5 for the DTA, later known as the Popular Democratic Movement, with 4.8% of the vote. Former SWAPO members founded the Rally for Democracy and Progress (RDP), whose support fell to 3.5%. Overall, the election sustained SWAPO's dominant position within Namibia's political fabric and was business as usual in 2014. Still, there was some evidence of change within these results. The Namibian voter base was significantly diversified. Younger voters were articulating concerns regarding economic inequality, unemployment, and corruption.
The 2019 elections would position these issues at the center stage. Namibian politics saw a dramatic shift with the elections in 2019. Despite SWAPO remaining the ruling party, power was diminished. Hage Geingob emerged victorious in the presidential election as he secured a second term, though his vote share sank to 56.3%, down more than 30 percentage points from his success in 2014. Since Namibia achieved its independence, this was the lowest number of people who supported a SWAPO president. The most outstanding event of the 2019 presidential election was the rise of independent candidate Panduleni Itula, who campaigned against Geingob still in SWAPO's fold. Seizing the momentum of the growing disillusionment with the incumbent party, Itula cashed in on themes of economic reform and anti-corruption to sweep to an impressive 29.2% result as an independent candidate. Itula's stunning performance seemed part of a broader trend of discontent with SWAPO, especially among the youth and urban voters who felt that the government was mishandling their affairs and that unemployment was rife. Support for SWAPO also took a dramatic fall in the parliamentary elections.
The party's vote share collapsed to 65.5%, a marked reduction from the 80% it received in 2014. Comparatively, this translated into a loss of 14 seats, and at 63 out of 96 seats, the party was now in a deeper hole than before. Rebranded as the Popular Democratic Movement (PDM), the DTA made considerable advances, increasing from five seats in 2014 to 16. A new party founded by former SWAPO member Bernadus Swartbooi, the Landless People's Movement (LPM), also made big waves, winning four parliamentary seats and gaining 7.3% of the vote.
Big Trends in Namibian Elections: 2014-2024
• The Decline of SWAPO
The inexorable fall of the SWAPO party over the last eight years has been the most obvious one. SWAPO, the party once the face to the struggle for Namibia and its self-governance after it attained independence is currently undergoing severe criticism, allegations of corruption, and an inability to deal with long-standing issues of inequality and unemployment. Because of the "Fishrot" scandal that caught up with some of SWAPO's top officials in a fishing industry bribery scandal a few months before the elections held in 2019, its image took a sour beating. This decline has been reflected in SWAPO's election outcomes. The party haemorrhaged 14.5 percentage points in parliament and 30.7 percentage points in the presidential vote between 2014 and 2019. Inevitably independent candidates and opposition parties exploit the vulnerabilities of SWAPO, this trend will likely continue into the elections of 2024. But nonetheless, there is very minimal chance that SWAPO would be ousted from power anytime soon because of its historical legacy and far-reaching grassroots networks.
• The Emergence of New Political Parties
The rise of many new political movements that seek to challenge SWAPO hegemony has come in this period between 2014 and 2024. Since its founding by former SWAPO members in 2016, the LPM has established itself as a strong voice on issues of social justice, but also as a pressure force for land reform. At a time when people were searching for historical injustices to be corrected, particularly on the topic of ownership of land, the reason the LPM won parliamentary seats in 2019-the LPM's priority was on historical injustice. The Popular Democratic Movement, previously known as the Democratic Turnhalle Alliance, also had some success. In 2019, opposition parties rebounded, and their rebound was significant because of the vote share garnered by the PDM to capitalize on general discontent in SWAPO's leadership.
• Independent Candidates on the Rise
Namibian politics saw something of a turning point in 2019 with an independent presidential candidate in Panduleni Itula. A rising interest in political options outside established party institutions is reflected by his impressive achievement. The growing significance of independent candidates may indicate a deeper trend in Namibia's political future, where electorates, particularly the young generation may seek leaders less affiliated to party lines and more committed to addressing pressing socioeconomic concerns.
Elections of 2024 Scrutiny
Several major events are most likely to shape Namibia's political landscape as we approach its 2024 elections. The 2024 elections are likely to be characterized by SWAPO's continued decline, new opposition parties, and the prospects of independent candidates shaking up the political game. Discussions will highlight governance reforms and economic recovery especially in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. These developments reflect broader transformations occurring within the Namibian society: growing demands for greater responsibility, open decision-making procedures, and economic reform from Namibia's leadership. These trends are likely to reoccur with the 2024 elections and ensure Namibia has a political environment far more pluralistic and competitive than ever before.
References
1. Electoral Commission of Namibia. (2014). Presidential and National Assembly
Elections Report. Retrieved from Electoral Commission of Namibia website.
2. Electoral Commission of Namibia. (2019). Presidential and National Assembly
Elections Report. Retrieved from Electoral Commission of Namibia website.
3. Melber, H. (2020). The Rise of Independent Candidates in Namibian Politics:
Implications for Democracy. Journal of Southern African Studies.
4. Hopwood, G. (2020). The Decline of SWAPO: Corruption and Governance Issues in
Namibian Politics. Institute for Public Policy Research.
5. New Era. (2019). Voter Apathy and Declining Turnout in Namibia's 2019 Elections.
Retrieved from New Era website.
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