By: Mahita Saikia
The author is a second-year student from the Jindal School of International Affairs (JSIA) of Jindal Global University, pursuing a B.A. (Hons.) degree in Global Affairs. She can be reached at 23jsia-mahita@jgu.edu.in
Image Source: Illustration by Lincoln Agnew
Introduction
Iran has emerged as one of the most stringent advocators against the continual brutal Israeli atrocities that have unfolded in the Gaza Strip starting October 7th, 2023. The situation at hand is fundamentally getting worse at an unprecedented rate, as Hamas and Israel continue in their respective retaliatory counteroffensives. West Asia persists as a volatile region of the world and there continue to be multiple intra and inter-regional dynamics which play out at any given period. Popular data analysis from Jacob Helberg, a geopolitical risk forecaster, gives in to the speculation that Iran is involved in Hamas’s gruesome attack on Israel (Confino and Lichtenberg, With Israel and Gaza). Although Iran may have denied its involvement in the same, its Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei praised the slaughter in a televised address in October 2023. “We kiss the hands of those who planned the attack on the Zionist regime”, Khamenei said. “The Zionist regime’s actions are to blame for this disaster.” Iran cannot afford to let Hamas be eliminated by Israel, for its robust attempts to re-establish the near-about hegemonic influence of the Islamic Republic, as demonstrated by its Hormuz-Peace plan, which claims to ‘establish durable peace in the region’, along with its overt support for proxy groups launching attacks on US interests in West Asia and its regional Arab partners. Israel, on the other hand, has tried to pre-empt and prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, perhaps because it considered Iran as an existential threat to itself. This essay attempts to carefully craft out Iran’s supposedly beneficiary position in the Israel-Hamas conflict, while simultaneously focusing on Iranian attempts at hegemonic influence through proxy non-state militant groups.
How did Iran and Israel Transform from Allies to Archenemies?
Relations between modern-day Iran and Israel date back to the Pahlavi Dynasty, which ruled from 1925 until it was overthrown in the 1979 Iranian revolution, ties between Iran and Israel were anything but hostile. Iran was the second Muslim-majority country to recognise Israel after it was founded in 1948. Iran was one of the 11 members of the special United Nations Committee to decide upon Palestine’s future in 1947 after the British control of the territory ended. It was one of the three countries to vote against the UN plan to divide up Palestine. Leading up to Israel’s establishment a year later, more than 700,000 Palestinians were ethnically cleansed from their homelands by Zionist militants to make an ethno-religious living space for their people (Motamedi, Iran and Israel). Palestinians call their forced displacement and dispossession the Nakba, Arabic for catastrophe. “To end its isolation in the Middle East, Israel’s Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion pursued relations with non-Arab states at the ‘edges’ of the Middle East, in what would later become known as the periphery doctrine. This also included Ethiopia, but Iran and Turkey were by far the most successful approaches,” said University of Oxford Historian Eirik Kvindesland (Motamedi).
Regional changes in West Asia post-WWII
Iran’s political atmosphere significantly changed after Mohammad Mosaddegh took office as Iran’s Prime Minister in 1951, when he spearheaded the nationalization of the country’s oil industry, which was monopolized by Britain. Thus Iran developed close economic and strategic ties with Israel, with Iran importing Israeli arms and Israel buying Iranian oil before the Iranian revolution in 1979. Both countries also had close ties with the US and considered fighting the Soviet Union and the spread of communism part of their foreign policy, according to the US Institute for Peace (Loanes, Iran Fit into the War). However, with the commencement of the 1979 Iranian Revolution, a hard-line Shia Muslim government was forced into practice which considered Israelis as usurpers on Muslim land. On January 16, 1979, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the Shah of Iran, fled the country and went into exile. Two weeks later, Ayatollah Khomeini returned from exile and established a parallel government to challenge the Shah's appointed Prime Minister. The Islamic Republic of Iran thus positioned itself as a revolutionary beacon under the slogan “neither East nor West, only Islamic Republic”. Subsequently, the country called for the overthrow of capitalism, American influence, and social injustice in the Middle East and the rest of the world. “In this world view, Israel was seen as a Western colonial outpost and Zionism as a version of imperialism,” Shireen Hunter, an independent scholar and honorary fellow at Georgetown University’s Alwaleed Centre for Muslim-Christian Understanding, wrote in a piece for the Stimpson Centre in March 2023 (Loanes).
Meanwhile, militant groups like that of Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthis in Yemen and Hamas in Palestine emerged, which were partly against Israel and held sporadic political influences around some constituencies on the ground. Hezbollah, for instance, started in response to several pressures in Lebanon and is known for carrying out attacks on US and Israeli targets in Lebanon (Loanes). The group also provided some necessities and support for people living in poor Shia areas south of Beirut, which increased under the leadership of Hassan Nasrallah, whose investment in social services for this constituency increased Hezbollah’s popularity. Hezbollah was also able to secure its political representation in the Lebanese Parliament. Iran is known to have provided funds, aid and support to Hezbollah since its early days, and their relationship continues to be well documented because Iran attempts to extend its influence in the Middle East (Loanes). Hamas, however, may have been reported to develop a rather loose relationship with the Islamic Republic. However, that supposition does not put an end to the speculation about Iran’s role in its regional politics.
Does Iran Benefit from the Israel-Gaza Conflict?
“The chaos and international attention drawn to the conflict in Gaza provide Iran with an opportunity to divert global scrutiny away from its nuclear development activities”, argues Dr Mohamed ELDoh, business development and consulting professional in the defence and security sector, tells the Geopolitical Monitor. Mounting geopolitical tensions and global humanitarian crises in the region are leading to an inflaming public opinion about Israel and its reputation in the international forum. By intensifying its involvement in regional and international politics and simultaneously capitalizing on the seething attention surrounding the war in Gaza, it is very much possible for Iran to launch its attempts to develop its nuclear arrangements further. By leveraging on the growing Israel-Gaza conflict along with successfully diverting world attention, Iran ventures to reignite its nuclear ambitions without active global attention, claims ELDoh. This also appears to be in line with Iran’s recent statements that reviving nuclear deals with the West seems to be increasingly impractical.
Bearing a long-drawn pattern of employing diplomatic manoeuvres, Iran can presumably utilize the Gaza conflict to promote and develop its nuclear programme. Iran has faced heavy criticisms and sanctions on its nuclear developments over the years, it is thus possible that Iran may attempt to use the current Israel-Gaza conflict scapegoat to advance on its nuclear front. The Islamic Republic also has a well-established history of negotiating with proxy militant groups and supporting non-state actors from Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and Gaza. The ongoing conflict is thus an advantageous situation for Iran to develop and solidify its influence as a greater Islamic Republic throughout the West Asian periphery while strengthening alliances with other regional nations across the region. By continuing to provide these groups with financial, economic, military and technological support, Iran can boost their capabilities and further intensify their fight against the West, specifically the US, and its regional Arab partners. By fanning the flames of the ongoing conflict, Iran can bolster its regional influence by creating a larger ambit of like-minded countries, potentially expanding its network of allies who would support the destabilization of the region to meet Iranian insurgency objectives.
Could there be an Outright Conflict?
The question now arises whether Iran would engage in an outright conflict with Israel. Perhaps not, considering Iran would have more to lose, including its access to $6 billion in assets, which the US and Qatar have already restricted due to their pending investigation into Iran’s role in Hamas’s capabilities and attack against Israel, as reported by the New York Times. Although Israel and Iran have been in a multifaceted cold war for a very long time, the probability of them involving in a supposed hot war seems unlikely. Hezbollah could certainly get directly involved, following Hezbollah’s war with Israel in Lebanon in 2006, and a very recent development reporting an Israeli airstrike in Nabatieh, southern Lebanon, on August 17th, 2024, which resulted in a handful of casualties in Lebanon. Hezbollah has been reported to retaliate through rocket and drone attacks. Israel may attempt to quibble out Iran’s smokescreen of proxy influence in the region, but the initiation of a full-on military conflict seems to be frozen still.
Iran has also agreed to follow a deescalatory track with the US and other allied countries, as demonstrated by the recent prisoner swap in September 2023, that freed several US citizens from being held in Iran in exchange for the freedom of five Iranians and access to $6 billion in assets for humanitarian use. There have been no attacks or attempts for the same as part of the US and Iran’s de-escalatory agreements, but if those agreements break down – it may trigger a very anticipatory conflict in the region, destabilizing the Middle Eastern socio-economic construct entirely. With the long overdrawn Israel-Gaza conflict, prospects of an Israel-Iran proxy conflict remain remote at present. However, perhaps the final nail in the coffin for the Palestinian struggle could only be achieved with a historical addressal of irritants and injustices in the region, with a structural initiative to resolve the Iran-Israel thaw.
References
Loanes, Ellen. “How does Iran fit into the war between Israel and Hamas?”. Vox. 15 Oct. 2023, https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2023/10/14/23917078/israel-hamas-war-gaza-iran-hezbollah-khamenei-lebanon. Accessed 2 Aug 2024.
ELDoh, Mohamed. “Iran: The Real Beneficiary of The Gaza Conflict”. Geopolitical Monitor. 13 Dec. 2023, https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/iran-the-real-beneficiary-of-the-gaza-conflict/. Accessed 2 Aug 2024.
Motamedi, Maziar. “Iran and Israel: From allies to archenemies, how did they get here?”. Aljazeera. 6 Nov. 2023, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/11/6/iran-and-israel-from-allies-to-archenemies-how-did-they-get-here. Accessed 2 Aug 2024.
Confino, Paolo and Lichtenberg. “With Israel and Gaza at war, there’s no smoking gun pointing to Iran yet, but that doesn’t stop some from seeing it”. Fortune. 12 Oct 2023, https://fortune.com/2023/10/11/was-iran-involved-in-hamas-attacks-israel-gaza-hezbollah-geopolitical-risk/
The views expressed in this article are those of the author (s). They do not reflect the views or opinions of Diplomania or its members.
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