By: Rajashri M. Kamat
The author is a fourth-year student at the Jindal Global Law School of O.P. Jindal Global University. She can be reached at 21jgls-rkamat@jgu.edu.in.
Introduction
The political atmosphere in the African continent has been turbulent, and one of its muddiest conflicts till now has found its way back into the limelight. Sudan finds itself at the carrefour of Sub-Saharan Africa[1] and the Middle East, forming a border on the Red Sea. Until 2011 Sudan stood upright as one nation, however, the decades of civil war had riddled the land with bloody atrocities until they finally came to a standstill when the Southern region broke away and formed one of the world’s newest nations: South Sudan. This secession would be viewed as an array of hope after several decades riddled with bloody skirmishes; however, this hope would soon be quashed. Violence would soon taint this temporary peace on both sides of the Sudanese territory, starting in relatively concentrated segments, followed by protests in 2018 which would result in a full-blown civil war in 2023. As the war horns wail in the distance, triggering a humanitarian crisis on what could soon dangerously become a skeletal land, this piece provides a historical analysis of the bloody conflict in the Sudanese region and the consequences it could have on world politics, particularly the African continent. Lastly, the piece also argues that resolving the conflict in Sudan is not only a crucial landmark for regional peace but could also mar global security structures and economic stability.
A Tale of Two States: Understanding Sudan and South Sudan
The story of Sudan’s bloody history dates back decades to the First Sudanese Civil War[2] which was fought against Khartoum’s government’s plans to impose external cultural values onto the state. This war would begin in 1955, all the way before its independence and come to its conclusion in 1972. After a cold and tense period of temporary peace, the Second Sudanese Civil War[3] would light up the Sudanese territory in 1983. This effort was led by the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SLPA) against the Sudanese government, which was previously led by President Nimeiri, notably followed by President Omar El-Bashir. The SLPA would form the resistance led by John Garang to fight against the central powers. This war would end in 2005[4], with the signing of the CPA i.e., the Comprehensive Peace Agreement between the Sudanese government and the SPLM. This war's end would signal a certain nexus event from which two prominent figures would emerge; General Abdel Fattah al-Burnhan and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, commonly referred to as “Hemedti”. Originally, both the men fought on the same side, striving towards achieving the common goal of destabilising and overthrowing President Omar El-Bashir’s[5] rule. Two decades before date, in the early 2000s, the two generals would come into the limelight after being found in the involvements in the Darfur incursions, where Al-Burhan rose to control the Sudanese army in the Darfur region and the latter was leading the Arab militias i.e., Janjaweed as a commander. The two men would organise a combined effort to overthrow El-Bashir’s government which was brutally cracking down on the non-Arab Darfuri rebel groups.
In 2019, the tides would gain strength as unrest grew in the nation against the President’s rule and two men would finally put together their biggest war effort to overthrow El-Bashir. This conquest would find a peculiar success in canning further violence with a caretaker government being put in charge to transition Sudan into democracy, an effort of which both the men would be a part of El-Bashir was ousted as was the plan, however in 2021[6], the two would orchestrate another coup with Al-Burhan taking control of the government-backed by military power while Hemedti remained in a powerful position. The RSF which is under the command of General Hemedti controls most parts of the west, whereas SAF controls the majority of the east and the north as well as the capital city of Khartoum.
Soon, both parties grappled to maintain significant power on each faction’s side. With each side trying to hijack the other’s source of power, this sort of silent struggle would result in an all-out war with each side trying to eradicate each other. An all-out war would break out in 2023[7] between the RSF and SAF grappling for power in the huge region of Darfur. Darfur is divided into five prominent states with the RSF having control of four of them. The battle would crescent over the struggle to control the very last region i.e., North Darfur where SAF already has an established military base.
Shadows Over Khartoum: The 2023 Skrimish
With the RSF trying to grapple for power in El-Fasher which is the capital city of North Darfur, war has come to its climax. Since April 2023, the regions of Khartoum, El-Fasher and many other significant cities have seen bloody clashes between the two factions, with heavy fighting consisting of air raids and artillery fire resulting in the deaths of hundreds of civilians causing a gaping hole that is the humanitarian crisis in the region to deepen.
In April 2023[8], heavy fighting with air raids and artillery fire continued to kill hundreds of civilians, worsening the deepening humanitarian crisis. By May, the Sudanese Armed Forces claimed that the RSF had its combat capabilities considerably reduced but reported that the heavy fight rages on in Khartoum. The head of the UN's emergency[9] relief came to establish dire humanitarian conditions; violence escalated as Turkey relocated its embassy to Port Sudan. The attacks by the RSF exacerbated the crisis further. Amidst international calls for ceasefires, August saw continued clashes in Khartoum and Darfur.
By September, the conflict continued uninterrupted, while the situation further deteriorated with an increasing food shortage. No ceasefires emerged by October, as international alarm grew over the situation. Violence only escalated in November and the situation remained critical, with millions displaced, in December, while January 2024 continues to face severe violence and humanitarian challenges with no effective resolution in sight.
We Light the Way: Analysing Sudan's Geopolitical Position
Before understanding how this conflict between SAF and the RSF escalated, it is important to understand the geopolitical aspects revolving around Sudan. Sudan finds itself at a critical juncture[10] in Northeast Africa, sharing a northern border with Egypt, having Eritrea and Ethiopia to the east, South Sudan to its obvious south and Chad to the west. It also forms a border with the Red Sea to the northeast, Libya to the northwest and the Central African Republic to the southwest. It is also remarkably the third largest country in the African continent, followed by Algeria and DR Congo. Additionally, Sudan has had control over the Nile River’s waters and is considered to be in a vital position forming trade routes via the Red Sea.
Historically, from 1899 to 1955 Sudan was considered to be under a joint British-Egyptian[11] rule which came to a halt in 1956 when Sudan gained its independence. Other than the geopolitical nexus it shares with its neighbouring countries, Sudan is also the home and hearth of where the White and Blue Nile rivers flow and meet which is a pivotal source of water supply for not just the Sudanese region but also Egypt, control and management of which has long been a source of contention between Sudan, Egypt and Ethiopia.
Apart from this, Sudan is rich in mineral resources, particularly gold as well as oil, the mining of which has seen unruly intervention from countries like China and Russia, with UAE being one of the leading countries in mining gold in Sudan.
As for Sudan’s immediate neighbours, countries in the African continent have been faced with crises resulting from civil wars, and external influences, triggering a synth-wave of a humanitarian crisis which was felt across the continent with recent evidence of genocide in DR Congo, which forms a boundary with the country. Amidst this, with impoverished, war-stricken countries sharing its immediate borders, or others which may feign ignorance, Sudan gets lost in the tide of circumstance, especially the Sudanese civilians, reducing their chances of fleeing and seeking immediate refuge in neighbouring countries which makes the wave of oncoming fiery civil war a particularly trife situation.
Conclusion: Sudan and The World
With the situation in Sudan being as heated as it is, an end to the war soon seems unlikely. The lack of diplomatic efforts between both sides has resulted in escalated violence, displacing 150,000 and putting over 25 million Sudanese[12] people in peril. Continued war would only result in a larger refugee crisis in other neighbouring countries, like Egypt which is already seeing an increased influx of Palestinian refugees since October. Instability in Sudan has potential repercussions for countries dependent on these resources and routes, including Egypt, Ethiopia, and Gulf states. The involvement of diverse international actors, ranging from regional powers to global superpowers, reflects Sudan's status as a geopolitical hotspot with complex geopolitical manoeuvring. For U.S. foreign policy, the Sudanese conflict presents challenges related to counterterrorism, regional stability, and humanitarian assistance. The international community, specifically the UN is now faced with the Goliathan task of mediating this conflict, through sanctions and humanitarian assistance. The stability of the Sudanese region is not just a Sub-Saharan issue, but one which would lead to the breakdown of humanitarian peacekeeping efforts worldwide.
References
[1] BBC News. (2011, July 9). South Sudan becomes the world's newest nation. BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-14095300.
[2] Carboni, Andrea (2024, January 17). Sudan: Setting the Stage for a Long War. ACLED, https://acleddata.com/conflict-watchlist-2024/sudan/.
[3] Ibid
[4] Al Jazeera. (2023, July 24). 100 days of conflict in Sudan: A timeline. Al Jazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/24/100-days-of-conflict-in-sudan-a-timeline
[5] Ibid
[6] Ibid
[7] Ibid
[8] Carboni, Andrea (2024, January 17). Sudan: Setting the Stage for a Long War. ACLED, https://acleddata.com/conflict-watchlist-2024/sudan/.
[9] Ibid
[10] Riboua, Zineb (2023, May 16). The Geopolitics of US Engagement in Sudan. Hudson Institute. https://www.hudson.org/foreign-policy/geopolitics-us-engagement-sudan.
[11] BBC News. (2011, July 9). South Sudan becomes world's newest nation. BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-14095300.
[12] Marks, Simon (2024, May 9). The World’s Biggest Displacement Crisis Is Not in Gaza. Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-09/sudan-civil-war-conflict-origins-impact-and-human-toll
The views expressed in this article are those of the author (s). They do not reflect the views or opinions of Diplomania or its members.
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