By: Kalyani R. Janakiraman
The author is a second-year master’s student at Jindal School of International Affairs. She can be reached at
Introduction
The Middle East and North African (MENA) region continues to witness a series of elections in 2024, which many voters allege are ‘shams’ labelled as democratic processes. This constitutes a reflection of the authoritarian power regimes that contest for power in the volatile region. Countries like Iran and Syria have held their presidential and parliamentary elections this year alongside Tunisia, Mauritania, Algeria, Libya, Jordan and Turkey. A strong undercurrent while analysing these elections is the mutual understanding amongst voters that the elections are but a farce for the authoritarian leaders to regain and consolidate power. The promise of political participation in such countries is marred by repression, engineered outcomes and legitimacy that can be contested. The reduction of elections as mere formalities has sparked protests, reflecting the deep-seated frustrations of the common citizen.
This article is dedicated to exploring the political trajectories of two countries, Iran and Syria, to examine the rise of individuals in power through elections that many view as shams. The leaders chosen through such elections have a significant impact on the geopolitical tensions that the region is steeped in, and this article is dedicated to understanding the various strands of concerns that engulf the region as it becomes increasingly volatile with the ongoing expansion of conflict across various borders.
The Palestinian Crisis
On 7th October 2024, Hamas launched a large-scale assault on Israel. This led to the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) conducting air and ground operations in Gaza to combat Hamas and secure the release of the hostages. The entry point for ground operations was situated in northern Gaza, at Beit Hanoun. As of early 2024, the bombings and ground operations have continued across all five governorates of Gaza, with the most recent operations occurring in Rafah, which shares its borders with Egypt. Tensions persist with Iran-backed groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq which has led to further escalation of conflict. Civilian casualties have increased with over 42,227 people, including nearly 16,765 children, dead and nearly 10,000 missing. Millions are displaced, with some seeking refuge in neighbouring states. The death toll given by Israel, once revised, stands at 1,139 with around 8,730 injured as of October 2024.
However, the origin of this conflict predates the Hamas attack, all the way back to the 19th century. In 1948, the establishment of Israel and the subsequent war that ensued led to the displacement of thousands of Palestinians. The 1967 Six-Day War ended with the defeat of the Arab armies and significant territorial gain for Israel, which was now four times its original size. This solidated its status as a military power in the region. However, it was consistently steeped in conflict; and thus the 1993 Oslo Accords was a welcome change. However, it failed to resolve the issues despite providing a framework to resolve the conflict at hand. Conflict continued to be a running theme in the region, which saw catastrophic casualties as well as both sides claiming victories on separate occasions. The chronic instability of the region rooted in identity and taking religious and ethnic overtures guaranteed permanent conflict.
The conflict has slowly spread as cross-border clashes with Hezbollah intensify by the minute. Missile strikes from Yemen’s Houthi rebels, paired with their attack on commercial ships that sail across the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden has unleashed economic pressure through increased cost of transit and shipping time. Militia in Iraq and Syria backed by Iran has conducted attacks on U.S. military positions in the region as a retaliation for the ongoing situation in Gaza and West Bank. Israel feels cornered in the region, having two theatres of conflict open. This has led to ground operations in the south of Lebanon, and threatens further regional expansion, with Iran shifting from proxy war to direct engagement. Jordan and Egypt have maintained strict border control, refusing to house the displaced Palestinians. The recurrent ceasefire efforts have all led nowhere, which concerns all parties of the conflict. The ultimate cost is being borne by the Gazans who face an acute humanitarian crisis due to lack of food, water and poor sanitation condition.
Most forms of intervention, be it through the UN or other countries have borne lacklustre results. Besides, the threat of regional expansion of this conflict looms heavy. Civilians in the region feel a sense of distress at the failure of their respective administrations in curbing the conflict, which has resulted in a wave of protests demanding ceasefire. The economic burden, the human cost and the damage to the environment are catastrophically high. It is in such a climate that 2024 is dubbed as the year of elections. 64 countries and the European Union spanning 5 continents witness voters expressing their dissent by exercising their right to vote.
The table below represents the outcome of the elections in the MENA region. Local or municipal elections have not been mentioned here due to constraints in abridging information.
Iranian Elections
Prior to the 1979 Revolution, Iran was ruled by the Pahlavi dynasty. The Pahlavis maintained close ties with the West, particularly the United States and Israel. At the peak of his rule, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi was one of the few leaders with a Muslim-majority population to recognize Israel and engage in diplomacy and economic cooperation with the latter. However, there was a deep resentment in the population against the Shah’s policies, his authoritarian rule and the growing economic inequality that plagued the nation. This planted the seeds for the Islamic Revolution, which saw the ascent of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who ousted the Shah and replaced the monarchy with an Islamic theocracy. The regime was built on the principle of velayat-e faqih (guardianship of the Islamic jurist). Thus, the Supreme leader of the state enjoys ultimate political and religious authority. All branches of governance are overseen by the Supreme Leader, including foreign policy.
Under Khomeini’s regime, Iran refused to recognize Israel, terming Israel as ‘Little Satan’. Khomeini viewed the Palestinian cause as intertwined with his own revolutionary struggle. He became an outspoken critic of Zionism and framed the conflict as a resistance against colonialism and occupation. This wasn’t a mere similarity in ideology but also a strategic decision, as Iran forged relationships with other Arab countries that were similarly disillusioned by the West, thus effectively claiming to the be leader of a broader ‘axis of resistance’. This is the foundation for the persistent support that groups like Hezbollah and Hamas in Palestine receive from this state. This helps further their cause in challenging the dominance that Israel holds in that region.
Iran’s political system is a unique blend of democratic structures and theocratic rule. There’s an occurrence of presidential and parliamentary elections, but the real power is consolidated by the Supreme Leader and the Guardian Council. Ayatollah Ali Khameini succeeded Khomeini and wields ultimate power in the state of Iran. The Grand Council is a 12-member body, consisting of 6 clerics appointed by Khameini and 6 jurists appointed by the Parliament. The candidates who stand for elections must adhere to the Islamic principles of the regime, and a long-standing criticism has been the effect to which this limits the pool of potential candidates. However, Iran claims to have struck a balance with the division of members in Grand Council, while the religious establishment holds the ultimate power.
The elections held on June 28th and July 5th came at the time when a helicopter crash near Azerbaijan claimed the life of the then President, Ebrahim Raisi in May 2024. Raisi’s Iran was marred with economic and social unrest. Internationally and domestically, Raisi reigned with a hardline stance. With his primary focus on countering the sanctions and the aftermath of COVID-19, which caused inflation rates to soar past 50%, with unemployment to reach 11% around 2022, his efforts yielded slow progress. The Rial weakened in his regime.
On the foreign policy front, Raisi was assertive, not wishing to lose the sphere of influence in the ongoing conflicts. His tenure witnessed critical isolation from the West, as all negotiations on the nuclear front reached stalemate. The simmering political tension and the inability to fix the ailing economy paired with morality police, particularly towards women regarding compulsory hijab has exacerbated the dissatisfaction. His death caused the clouds of uncertainty to loom over Iran.
The election in 2024 was dominated by a spectrum of conservative candidates, ranging from ultraconservative to mildly conservative figures. The reason for such a one-dimensional spectrum of candidates is the fact that they are all vetted by the Guardian Council before contesting. Masoud Pezeshkian won the 2nd Round of elections with 53.7% of the votes. Masoud Pezeshkian is a moderate reformist who took office on July 30, 2024. Previously, he was the former deputy speaker and health minister. His political agenda includes improving ties with the West and easing restrictions around social freedoms. Compared to hardliners like Saeed Jalili, the voters seem to have sought after Pezeshkian to alleviate their economic and political condition. Sworn in amidst the chants of 'Death to America' and 'Death to Israel', he promises to ensure the world interacts with Iran with dignity and respect.
Pezeshkian advocates for reforms around the issues of mandatory hijab and internet censorship. However, despite calling for reforms in the social milieu, he has emphasised his loyalty to the Supreme Leader, thus effectively allowing for the inference that in his regime, Iran will not alter its core ideological framework, one where it sees itself as the leader of the 'axis of resistance'. Besides, the hardliners that exist in the Iranian political milieu exist as a challenge to his reformist ideologies, which sparks a sense of fear and despair that not much will change. However, Pezeshkian has shown a willingness to revisit the JCPOA deal and is willing to interact through diplomatic channels. Though the Supreme Leader has control over much of the politics, it is the president that determines diplomatic ventures.
International Reception
Under his regime, the country’s currency is strengthening. On October 11th, 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Masoud in Turkmenistan in order to assess the escalating violence that embroils the region. Iran's concern for its allied groups prompted a discussion on strengthening of ties, mutual support for their respective geopolitical positions and even a strategic partnership agreement. This comes at the time when sanctions are being levied against Iran by the EU for alleged transfer of ballistic missiles. Russia back home is embroiled in its own war, nearing a thousand days of direct conflict with Ukraine, it has grown dependant on Iranian weapons.
The other aim of such a sanction is to economically pressure Iran to cease pushing the conflict further with Israel, as it launches its second missile strike this year. Pezeshkian, owing to his stance determined that the attack was a ‘decisive response’ to the ongoing ‘Zionist regime’s aggression’. He warned Israel that Iran had only exercised ‘one corner of its power’, and that Iran isn’t belligerent; it is merely responding to a threat.
Though the Iron Dome manages to deflect potentially threatening attacks, Israel’s counterattack and the scale at which it occurs could guarantee intensification of an already violent period in the region. Kremlin, completely aware of this dependency on Iran, wishes to avoid any possibility of chainganging or the possibility of losing its source of weapons, thus urging Iran and Israel to exercise control and not intensify the conflict any further.
With the election of Pezeshkian, although the core ideology of Iran and its strategic motivation of supporting the Palestinian and Lebanese allies is here to stay, citizens feel that his extended attention to the economy, diplomacy and social issues inspire some hope in them. With such a power structure, the ongoing support is said to carry on steady, however the effect of such a stance will have certain repercussions when engaging with the West diplomatically. Pezeshkian must be prepared to strike an act of balance with the aim of conflict minimization, otherwise as some strategists and alarmists put it, the brink of a Third World War isn’t far.
CRINK continues to extend its support in the shadows, made up of revisionist nuclear states such as China, Russia, North Korea and now, suspectedly, Iran, is a cause for concern. Allegations of transfer of nuclear resources and knowledge in aiding Iran build its nuclear capacity have surfaced recently with the news of an underground nuclear test conducted by Iran. It comes as no surprise that Iran would aggressively pursue this venture, as it considers nuclear energy a sovereign right, owing to its rich uranium deposits. Iran is willing to exercise its political will and power to amass influence in the region and counter Israel, which has enjoyed the title of being the only nuclear power in the region thus far. Though Israel engages in nuclear ambiguity, not wanting to be the one to introduce nuclear weapons in the already destabilizing region, Iran’s recent activities will push Israel to be motivated to establish its military superiority. While Israel vows to not target any nuclear or oil facilities in Iran as a part of its retaliatory strike, one cannot be certain of the calculus that either countries are engaging in to justify their aggression.
This is an alarming prospect, as it highlights not only the failure of a time-sensitive JCPOA deal, but also the overall possibility of a nuclear race in the region, considering that Saudi and UAE have already made it clear that they will pursue nuclear weapons should Iran possess any. A nuclear-armed Middle East is a cause for concern, owing to its numerous conflicts and skirmishes across various borders. The situation grows precarious by the moment, especially when one factors in the nuclear facet of it. Regardless of Pezeshkian’s moderate political leaning, as an Iranian, he recognizes the country’s nuclear ambitions as an exercise of sovereignty. Along with the rapid acceleration of such an electric climate, the conflict is sure to persist and transform into something worse, unless the leaders of the Middle East come to the recognition that sustained future escalation of conflict could cripple the economies of their nations and call for a ceasefire on all fronts.
Syrian Crisis Continues
The second half of this article focuses on the parliamentary elections in Syria and its effects on the ongoing conflict as understood through the passages above. Syria recently held its parliamentary elections, with the Baʿath Party unsurprisingly assuming majority seats. To analyze the situation in Syria, a deeper understanding of its history is needed.
Syria’s political landscape has been shaped by the complicated interplay of several historical events. Colonised by France in 1920, it attained its independence in 1946. The establishment of the Baʿath party the subsequent year emerged on the principle of Arab nationalism and socialism. The party was created by two Syrian intellectuals, Michel Aflaq and Salah al-Din Bitar, who envisioned a united Arab world. The party ideology fundamentally revolves around pan-Arabism, anti-imperialism and secular, socialist principles. Syria was marred by civil riots, military coups and conflicts for the longest period post independence. In Syria, the Ba'ath Party gained control after the 1963 coup d'état of the then government. The dissatisfaction arose due to popular anti-oligarchic sentiments prevalent in the public against the elites who usurped control of the region. This dissatisfaction multiplied due to arbitrary borders drawn under the ambit of the Sykes-Picot Agreement of 1916, which divided Syria from Iraq among several other countries through borders as seen today. All these factors culminated in a coup, with Hafez al-Assad assuming leadership in 1970 after the 1966 coup d'état that ousted the Party and the 1970 Corrective Revolution which was one of the many bloody uprisings the country witnessed in that period.
Bashar al-Assad succeeded General Hafez in 2000, facing several challenges that escalated into the civil war in 2011. By 2011, the Arab Spring Movement, a wave of pro-democracy protests and armed rebellions was in full swing. This was the time where economic disparity was acute, and people took to the streets to protest the authoritarian leaders, with some factions succeeding in overthrowing leaders in Tunisia and Egypt. The civil war in Syria emerged as a response to the acute drought from 2006, the financial fallout it caused and the inspiration that charged the climate in the Middle East. Lasting well over 11 years and subsiding to a stalemate, the death toll stands at around 306,887 civilians.
The al-Assad regime navigated this period of turmoil by maintaining a tight hold on political power through repression, military force and its strategic alliance with Hezbollah and Iran. Owing to its domestic issues, Syria faced a spell of isolation in the region, however, recently, the country is trying to mend its relationships with other nations by forming an association with the ‘axis of resistance’.
While Iran’s core ideology for supporting Hamas and other allied groups is fuelled by a mix of strategic and core beliefs, the political optics of Assad’s support are stronger than any form of substantial aid, as Syria itself grapples with a slew of internal crises and international pressure. Syria remains relatively passive in this axis, with its occasional facilitation of transit of weapons and other resources from Iran to Hezbollah and Hamas.
Bashar al-Assad has been accused of using the diversion towards the crisis in Gaza to accelerate his rampant killings, exceeding a 100 Syrian civilians per day. Assad is seen using this moment of reignition of anti-imperialism to squash his dissenters, labelling them a mixed faction of Turkish, Israeli, Qatari protestors. With such a response, he has managed to push the real problems that plague Syrians under the rug, and simultaneously evoke a strong nationalist spirit as he continues down this authoritarian path. The extent of repression in Syria is reflected clearly in its political climate. The voters, disillusioned with the state of affairs, have chosen to stay away from the polling booths. The turnout was at a low of 38.16%, as many were unable to even participate due to their state of economic despair. In this tightly controlled political environment, National Progressive Front backed by Assad’s party managed to garner 74% of the votes. Out of the 250 seats, Baʿath Party alone won 169 seats. The regime has perfected the facade of democracy while stifling political dissent. The most important task which this Parliament will face once functional is a constitutional reform which would enable Assad to extend his power after 2028.
In the light of such conflicting developments, as Assad continues to evoke Muslim solidarity, one must remain cognizant of the fact that since the overarching conflict began, over 40,000 lives have been lost in Syria. The varying degrees of manipulation that forms the undercurrent of Assad’s rhetoric is a telling tale of a rather disturbing reality: while the world watches one conflict unfold, there are several ongoing conflicts that the world has simply forgotten or turned a blind eye towards. The suffering of civilians has been overshadowed by political gains all across the region, with dissenters being suppressed by their own state, often being labelled as ‘anti-nationalist’. So long as civilians suffer in the political panopticon created by such polarising leaders, theocratic rulers and autocratic figures, the freedom of expression and the freedom to choose a leader are stolen from them. This leads to disillusionment, causing eligible voters to feel abstain from voting as. Low voter turnouts that plague the MENA region are evidence of this.
In the year of the elections, one must remember that the democratic virtues are to be exercised, not merely adopted and displayed. A more concerning trend emerges as the world notices ultranationalist leaders with rigid political agendas win the polls. The eternal virtues of universality and integrity which uphold our freedom to elect our representatives must be exercised with an objective mind. As we still wait for more countries to undergo the electoral process, it is important for us remember the power of democratic participation. It is imperative that we act, not observe.
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