By: Mohini Chandra
The author is a second-year master’s student at Jindal School of International Affairs. She can be reached at 23jsia-mohini@jgu.edu.in
Following the recent Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential elections of 27th September 2024, general elections are scheduled to be held in Japan by 31 October 2025. Considering the recent Slush Fund Scandal, Japan’s most recent Prime Minister Kishida Fumio, chose not to rerun for the position of the president of the LDP, and thereby the post of Prime Minister in the National Diet. The National Diet is Japan’s national legislature and is comprised of the Lower House, Shūgiin, the House of Representatives and the Upper House, Sangiin, the House of Councilors.
The Slush Fund Scandal showed how closely tied the Unification church was to the Abe Faction, led by the late former Prime Minister of Japan. Shinzo Abe. The scandal forced Kishida to remove many of his ministers and dissolve his own faction, Kōchikai amid the record-low approval ratings. The controversy stretched further out to other party factions like the Seiwakai and Shisuikai, both of which disbanded in January 2024. By the end, all but one of the six factions had announced their dissolution following the corruption scandals. Approval ratings were also mired by the LDP’s affiliations with the Unification Church as shown below.
Moreover, there is insecurity amongst the people that the removal of faction support could return Japan to the early 2000s, which saw “revolving door” leadership changes and political instability. The early 2000s saw a succession of short-lived governments that hurt Japanese Prime Ministers’ ability to set up long-term policy goals or develop trusted relations with other leaders.
Consequently, far more important in the minds of the Japanese public is the country's deepening economic woes. In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, the average Japanese family has been feeling the pinch as they struggle with a weak yen, a stagnant economy and food prices that are soaring at the fastest rate in almost half a century. Meanwhile, data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) highlights that the wages in Japan have barely changed in 30 years. That drawn-out slump, coupled with 30-year-high inflation, is tightening the screws on Japanese households, and prompting calls for government help. The economic issues are damaging the LDP's historically favourable standing among voters.
Presidential elections for the LDP is a two-step process, beginning with the first round, where as stated in the LDP’s Rules for the Election of President of the Party, to qualify for the party elections, a potential candidate must be an LDP member of the National Diet and must receive a nomination from at least 20 fellow LDP Diet members. Nine candidates ran for the presidency in the 2024 elections held on the 27th of September 2024, a record number at the beginning of the official campaign period. Ishiba Shigeru, Koizumi Shinjirō and Takaichi Sanae emerged as the three top front-runners based on polling. Ishiba and Koizumi have been described as the "centrists” of the election, while Takaichi has been described as a "staunch conservative". The vote was limited to LDP members of parliament and about 1 million dues-paying party members, constituting only 1% of the country’s eligible voters.
In case any candidate manages to win a majority that is specified as being over 50% of the total votes in the first round, the candidate is elected as President of the LDP. However, since after the first round, no candidate won with majority, runoff elections were immediately conducted between the top two candidates, Ishiba Shigeru and Takaichi Sanae. A runoff according to the Rules for the Election of President of the Party established by the LDP, is held when no-one gets the majority votes in the first round and all Diet members vote again while the 47 prefectural chapters of the LDP get one vote each, with the result of the latter votes determined using the first round results of party members in each prefecture. The candidate who wins the most votes in the runoff is then elected president, which happened to be Ishiba, who received 215 votes to Takaichi's 194. Furthermore, since the LDP has a parliamentary majority, its party chief/president will become the Prime Minister and Ishiba is expected to be appointed to the role on Tuesday.
Of the nine candidates running for the LDP presidency, Takaichi Sanae, Koizumi Shinjirō, and Ishiba Shigeru had pulled ahead to be considered as the most likely to win. Among the three, Takaichi Sanae used to be a close ally of former Prime Minister Abe. He is the most conservative and is known for holding a firm stance on defense, national security, and maintaining traditional Japanese values. He is strongly against not just women’s rights for separate surnames but also same-sex marriages. Moreover, she advocates for aggressive foreign policy, emphasizing stronger US-Japan ties while also promoting increased defense spending, constitutional reform, and stricter regulations on foreign land purchases.
As a former Minister of State for Okinawa and Northern Territories Affairs, Minister of State for Science and Technology Policy, Minister of State for Innovation, Minister of State for Youth Affairs and Gender Equality, and Minister of State for Food Safety in the Japanese Cabinet of Prime Minister Shinzō Abe (information taken from the Prime Minister’s Office of Japan), Takaichi is strongly in favor of revising Article 9 of the Japanese constitution, which prohibits Japan from entering armed conflict. Furthermore, she is one of the few politicians that has visited the Yasukuni Shrine and signed the visitors’ logbook as a minister of the state. Takaichi is also strongly in favor of nuclear energy and fusion reactor developments; she also strongly advocates for a more aggressive foreign policy that emphasizes stronger US-Japan ties while encouraging defense spending, constitutional reform, and stricter regulations on foreign land purchases. Moreover, Takaichi is in disfavor of premising female Emperors, since she believes that sticking to more traditional gender roles will preserve Japanese culture, even though before the Imperial Household Law that was issued in 1889, along with the new Meiji Constitution, female reigns were allowed.
Takaichi is backed by:
Tōru Doi (House of Representatives, 2005–2009; 2012–present)
Iwao Horii (House of Councillors, 2013–present)
Akimasa Ishikawa (House of Representatives, 2012–present)
Shigeki Kobayashi (House of Representatives, 2012–2014; 2017–present)
Shoji Nishida (House of Councillors, 2007–present)
Kei Satō (House of Councillors, 2016–present)
Hiroshi Yamada (House of Councillors, 2016–present; House of Representatives, 1993–1996; 2012–2014; Mayor of Suginami, 1999–2010)
In contrast to Takaichi, Koizumi and Ishiba are more reformist and centralist, respectively. Koizumi Shinjirō, son of Koizumi Junichiro, Japan’s sixth longest serving Prime Minister, has been described as a "rising star" of the LDP, and to cement his position as a reformist and changer harbinger, Koizumi has pledged to introduce legislation legalizing separate surnames for married couples and promising that it would “be done within a year." Not only has Koizumi pledged a claim that is in direct opposition to Takaichi Sanae, but he also promised to dissolve the lower house and call general elections "snap elections.” Koizumi has also claimed to hold a referendum on whether Article 9 of the Constitution should be amended and attempt to get the amendment passed with a two-thirds majority vote of the Diet.
Koizumi is in favor of reforming the LDP party without factional dynamics and seeking regulation and political reform required to achieve the objective. Economically, Koizumi's political campaign has also included conducting a thorough review of the regulations concerned with workplace layoffs and the higher education system. Koizumi has also emphasized stronger government support for startups. Moreover, Koizumi is passionate about combating climate change, which is evident when, as Reuters reported, he called for the fight against climate change to be considered "sexy,” "cool,” and "fun.”
Koizumi is backed by:
Yoshihide Suga (Former Prime Minister, 2020–2021)
Naoki Furukawa (House of Representatives, 2021–present)
Seiko Noda (House of Representatives, 1993–present)
Masanobu Ogura (House of Representatives, 2012–present)
Kiyoto Tsuji (House of Representatives, 2012–present)
Miki Yamada (House of Representatives, 2012–present)
Lastly, Ishiba, the winner and the new President of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan, is a centralist, as mentioned earlier, and is the former Minister of Defense. His win has been as unexpected as long-awaited by him. 2024, the LDP presidential elections, mark his fifth run as a success in a long line of four failed leadership bids, as well as his previous unpopularity with many LDP members of the Diet. Ishiba declared his candidacy on 14 August, hours after Kishida's resignation. Since Ishiba narrowly defeated economic security minister Takaichi Sanae in a runoff election for the position of President of the LDP party, Ishiba has now been approved as Prime Minister in a vote by parliament on October 1, 2024. Ishiba’s position as Prime Minister was guaranteed the moment, he beat Takaichi in the LDP's presidential elections, given that the LDP had a majority in both chambers of the legislature—Shūgiin and Sangiin—effectively ensuring its President becomes the next Prime Minister.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author (s). They do not reflect the views or opinions of Diplomania or its members.
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