By: Mohini Chandra
The author is a second-year master’s student at Jindal School of International Affairs. She can be reached at 23jsia-mohini@jgu.edu.in
Image Source: Reuters. Borrowed from Al Jazeera
Introduction
Chinese Military Coast Guard personnel surround Taiwan’s main island on Monday, October 14th, 2024, for military drills that Beijing confirmed were warnings against Taiwanese attempts at self-governance, following a speech made by the Taiwanese President. China in retaliation to President William Lai vowing to "resist annexation" or "encroachment upon our sovereignty” has launched new military drills off the country’s coast. Sovereignty contextually refers to China infringing on Taiwan’s political and territorial autonomy by claiming it as its own, despite Taiwan’s status as a self-governing island. The drills have been linked to a National Speech Day, which commenced last Thursday, where the Taiwanese President made explicit claims that the People’s Republic of China “has no right to represent Taiwan”, but that he was willing to work with it to maintain peace and stability (“How China ‘Punishes’ Taiwan,” 2024).
Historical Context
Historically, China has held several major military drills off the coast of Taiwan since 2022 and its fighter jets regularly enter Taiwanese airspace. Initially, tensions had eased considerably for eight years, from 2008 to 2016, until the leader of Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Tsai Ing-wen was elected as President. China considers the DPP a hardline pro-independence party and responded by cutting off all direct contacts with the Government in Taipei.
The straw that broke the camel’s back was when US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi flew into Taipei in August 2022, it was the first time a sitting House Speaker had visited the island since 1997. Beijing deemed Pelosi’s visit and her open support for Taiwan as a huge provocation since it came close to formal recognition of the Taiwanese government by a very senior US politician. In response, Beijing reacted with fury, holding two days of exercises and for the first time flying ballistic missiles over the island and into the Pacific Ocean. Currently, Lai continues the eight-year rule of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) that rejects China’s demand that Taiwan be recognized as a part of China, under the One China Policy. President Xi Jinping has vowed to retake it by force if necessary. Beijing also held drills earlier this year around Taiwan after Lai was sworn in as President in January 2024.
Current Status
The latest exercise has been dubbed ‘Joint Sword 2024-B' by Beijing and had been widely expected since May 2024, when drills bearing similar names and officially labelled as ‘part A’ were staged. The drills, however, began without any prior notice. “The “surge in warplane activity” saw a record number of aircraft spotted in the 25 hours to 6 am on Tuesday (22:00 GMT, Monday), the Ministry of National Defense said in a statement.” (“Taiwan reports surrounded by Chinese Military”, 2024). A total of 34 naval vessels and 153 aircraft were detected in formation around the island on Monday. A map released by the Eastern Theater Command showed drills taking place in nine areas surrounding Taiwan as well as its outlying islands that are closer to mainland China. Moreover, China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) approached Taiwan with aircraft carrier Liaoning. The PLA also did not announce any live-fire or no-fly zones. According to the PLA, these exercises simulated a full-scale attack on Taiwan by land, sea, and air. Chinese state media released maps indicating that PLA forces were positioned around the entire island, including its outlying territories.
National Stances and Global Reactions:
Senior Captain Li Xi, spokesperson of the PLA Eastern Theatre Command, was reported stating the drills "fully tested the integrated joint operation capabilities" of its troops. Furthermore, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said at a daily briefing that China did not consider relations with Taiwan a diplomatic issue, in keeping with its refusal to recognize Taiwan as a sovereign state. The war games, as China describes as its largest yet, were timed to coincide with the inauguration of President Lai, who Beijing has long seen as a "troublemaker" advocating for Taiwan's independence. The exercise was seen as a stern warning, and condemnation by the PRC which when combined with the timing of the remarks made by the Taiwanese President, the deployment of the exercise, alongside the fiery rhetoric used by both the Chinese military and the Foreign Minister, could be seen as a rather aggressive behaviour.
Taiwan's response has been measured but firm. The Taiwanese Ministry of Defense condemned China's actions as "irrational and provocative behaviour" while emphasizing its readiness to defend the island. Taiwan's Premier, Cho Jung-tai, expressed concern that these manoeuvres pose a threat not just to Taiwan but to the entire region. Despite the military activities, Taiwan's transport ministry reported that air traffic and port operations remained “normal."
The international community, particularly the United States, has expressed concerns over China's actions. The U.S. stated that there was no justification for the drills following President Lai's "routine" speech and urged China to avoid actions that could jeopardize regional peace and stability in the country. The Pentagon characterized the drills as "irresponsible, disproportionate, and destabilizing." These military exercises are seen as a part of a broader pattern of Chinese assertiveness towards Taiwan. Since 2022, China has conducted several major drills off Taiwan's coast, with its fighter jets regularly entering Taiwanese airspace. The timing of these latest drills, coinciding with Taiwan's National Day and following President Lai's inauguration, is seen as a particularly drafted provocative move.
Analysis and Conclusion
Analysts suggest that these drills serve multiple purposes for China. They allow Beijing to monitor Taiwan's military responses, strain the island's defence resources, and normalize the concept of regular war games in the region. However, some experts argue that the drills may have backfired, as Taiwan, accustomed to such displays of force, did not panic or overreact. Kuang-shun Yang, co-founder of the Taipei-based think tank, the US-Taiwan Watch, posits that these exercises could be China testing international reactions during a period of global upheaval, citing ongoing conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine war and the controversial Israel-Gaza-Iran triad.
As tensions continue to simmer, the international community remains watchful of this delicate situation. The drills underscore the complex interplay of regional politics, military strategy, and international diplomacy in the Taiwan Strait, highlighting the ongoing challenges to maintaining peace and stability in this critical region.
Works Cited
1. Wingfield-Hayes, R., & Perera, A. (2024, October 14). China 'punishes' Taiwan president remarks with new drills. BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgd4yn45qlo
2. Wong, T. (Ed.), Wingfield-Hayes, R., McDonell, S., Butler, G., Wong, T., Guinto, J., Wang, F., Gardner, F. (2024, October 14). Taiwan military on high alert as Chinese drills encircle the island. BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cjwdgp02enet
3. Al Jazeera. (2024, October 15). Taiwan reports surrounded by 153 Chinese military aircraft during drills. AlJazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/10/15/taiwan-reports-surrounded-by-153-chinese-military-aircraft-during-drills
4. Chang, W., & Regan, H. (2024, October 15). A record number of Chinese warplanes flew close to Taiwan during military drills. CNN. https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/15/asia/record-china-warplanes-taiwan-drills-intl-hnk/index.html
5. Reuters. (2024, October 15). Taiwan details record surge in Chinese warplanes involved in war games. VOA News. https://www.voanews.com/a/taiwan-details-record-surge-in-chinese-warplanes-involved-in-war-games/7822564.html
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9. Saha, Bidisha. (2024, October 15). Mapped: How China 'punishes' Taiwan with military drills?. India Today. https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/mapped-how-china-punishes-taiwan-with-military-drills-2617278-2024-10-15
The views expressed in this article are those of the author (s). They do not reflect the views or opinions of Diplomania or its members.
Very nicely summarised