By: Ruchir Ketkar
The author is a first-year master's student at Jindal School of International Affairs. He can be reached at 24jsia-rketkar@jgu.edu.in
Background
On 8th December 2024, the rebel forces directed by the Islamist militant group, Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS) concluded their ten-day offensive which led to the fall of the Bashar Assad regime. The rapid military offensive which began with the seizure of major cities like Aleppo and Hama, concluded with the fall of the capital Damascus, resulting in the deposed president, Assad fleeing to Moscow. The offensive brought an end to the 50-year rule of the Assad family and led to the formation of a transitional Islamist government with Mohammed-al-Bashir as the new Prime Minister.
Different Players, Different Agendas
The rapid unfolding of the events in Syria has taken the entire world aback. As the upheaval in Syria finally culminates with the formation of a transitional government, there have been significant losses and gains for countries that were involved in the conflict.
The fall of the Assad regime can also be attributed to the lack of support it received from key allies like Iran and Russia. While being preoccupied with their respective conflicts, both Iran and Russia were severely restricted in their capacities to provide crucial military support to the Assad regime as they had in the past during the Arab Spring. As the offensive was intensifying in Northern and Western Syria, Assad was forced to rely on the Syrian Army which was itself undergoing significant organizational breakdown and moral complications with soldiers losing trust in the regime. The fall of the Assad regime remains a scathing loss for Russia as well as Iran, for whom Syria was a crucial strategic partner in the region. For Iran, Syria was a significant part of its “Axis of Resistance” which also included groups like the Hezbollah. Russia had important military bases in Syria which provided access to the Mediterranean Sea. Additionally, the transition in power was also a drawback for other Gulf monarchies who were making efforts towards normalizing ties with the regime evidenced by the inclusion of Syria in the Arab League.
In Contrast, the downfall of the Assad regime represents a moral victory for the United States, Turkey, and Israel. All the countries played a pivotal role in the fall of the regime, with the US-backed Kurdish forces and Turkey-backed Sunni Arab militia groups being a major part of the military offensive. For the United States, it presents an opportunity to engage in fresh and positive relations with the new government and modify its strategy in Syria.
Additionally, the US would be keen to monitor the emergence of ISIS in the region. Turkey has also played an instrumental role in training and arming the Syrian opposition in facilitating the military offensive. It also hosted the political opposition and created a framework for the revitalization of Syria in the post-Assad period. The transition in power could help Turkey suppress several Kurdish separatist groups who are present in large swathes of Northeastern Syria. Moreover, Turkey also has the opportunity to enable the return of millions of Syrian refugees who sought shelter in the country.
The Way Forward
Over the past 50 years, Syrians have been subjected to brutal repression and complex authoritarian governance under the despotic rule of the Assad family. The Civil War which began with the mass protests as part of the Arab Spring movement has resulted in the death and displacement of thousands of civilians. Syria has been rendered into a highly impoverished and divided state with large parts of its territories under the control of various foreign powers like Iran, Israel, Turkey, and Russia.
Today, Syria is on the verge of an unprecedented moment in its history with the HTS-led rebel coalition taking over the political reigns. Thousands of Syrians are celebrating the occasion with jubilation as the autocratic rules come to an end. Despite, numerous speculations about Syria’s precarious future, the new regime has demonstrated initial optimism. The leaders have highlighted their aspirations for the development of the country and the need to shape Syria's political destiny. To establish political legitimacy, the HTS-led administration needs to deal with certain issues upfront.
One of the major concerns is maintaining order and negotiating rivalries among different factions. While assuming the leadership role, HTS is tasked with the responsibility of ruling over a diverse population and managing internal dissent in the presence of several armed groups. The new administration must work to strengthen its coalitions and ensure that historical animosities between different groups do not affect the reconciliation efforts. The regime should actively try to gain international support and demonstrate willingness to cooperate. Moreover, it needs to address the humanitarian situation in the country and should actively work towards facilitating the return of millions of Syrians who have sought refuge in other countries to resolve the dire economic conditions. Several countries have also raised concerns that HTS can revert to its Al Qaeda origins with its historical roots tied with the Al Nussra front. Despite severing ties with Al Qaeda in 2016, it becomes necessary for HTS to present its credentials as a strong independent entity that is not aligned with the ideology of its parent group. The new administration should also create a robust political framework while outlining the country's future. The regime also has diplomatic aid in the form of the 2012 Geneva Communique which was created by an action group that included the foreign ministers of countries like the United States, France, the United Kingdom, Russia, and Turkey led by Kofi Annan, then the United Nations joint special envoy for Syria. The Communique outlines the principles and guidelines for governance for a “Transitional Governing Body” in Syria.
Conclusion
The fall of the Assad regime is a significant turning point in Syria’s turbulent history with the new administration facing numerous challenges in proving its credibility and maintaining order. The path ahead for Syria would require careful international negotiation with key foreign players to gain crucial support and domestic negotiations with different sectarian groups to curtain internal dissent. Additionally, it is also pivotal for the new administration to gain the trust and confidence of the local citizens who would be hoping for domestic reforms and greater regional stability. The future looks uncertain, but one can expect that Syria will emerge from the shadow of its tumultuous past and pave the way for peace and tranquillity in the Middle East.
References
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Dagres, H. (2024, December 13). Where Syria goes next after the fall of Assad - Atlantic Council. Atlantic Council. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/syria-next-assad-hts/
Staff, A. J. (2024, December 10). How al-Assad’s regime fell: Key moments in the fall of Syria’s ‘tyrant.’ Al Jazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/10/syria
Kozul-Wright, A. (2025, January 8). Rebuilding Syria’s economy: Can stability return after war? Al Jazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2025/1/8/rebuilding-syrias-economy-can-stability-return-after-war
Wright, R. (2024, December 15). Syria after Assad. The New Yorker. https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2024/12/23/syria-after-assad
The views expressed in this article are those of the author (s). They do not reflect the views or opinions of Diplomania or its members.
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