Capital Contest: Who will win Delhi’s Mandate? Looking Back at the Predictions

By: Aniket Khatri

Source: The Quint

A Closer Look at the Incumbent vs Challengers

As the high-stakes Delhi elections hurtle toward the finish line, every contesting party holds its breath, bracing for a nail-biting showdown that could shake the political landscape to its core. Aam Aadmi Party has been holding the reins for almost ten years now, leading many to believe that anti-incumbency will finally topple the Arvind Kejriwal-Atishi-led regime. The major parties contesting against the AAP are the Bharatiya Janata Party, which currently holds power at the Centre, and the once Sheila Dikshit-led Congress, which was at the helm for 15 years.

The Aam Aadmi Party, under the leadership of Arvind Kejriwal, has spiced up Delhi's political scene by zeroing in on local governance. Their recipe for success includes enhancing education, healthcare, and infrastructure, striking a chord with the Delhiites. Kejriwal's portrayal of Delhi as a city with its own distinct challenges and opportunities has set AAP apart from national parties.

On the other hand, the Bharatiya Janata Party brings a nationalistic zest to the mix, leveraging Prime Minister Narendra Modi's leadership and focusing on themes like nationalism, national security, and Hindu identity. While this approach has been a hit on the national stage, it hasn't quite tantalized the taste buds of Delhi's electorate, who are more concerned with local governance.

Meanwhile, the Indian National Congress seems to be struggling to find its unique spice in this political curry. Their inability to craft a compelling local narrative has left them trailing in this battle of flavours. For Congress, the erosion of its base in Delhi serves as a sobering reminder of shifting political preferences in India. Once a party of the masses, its decline in Delhi mirrors its struggles in several other states. However, its legacy and reach continue to make it an important player in the city's political triangle.[1]

The Delhi polls will have far-reaching resonations, beyond the contours of the Delhi border to the Bihar polls lined up for the end of 2025, and even the West Bengal Elections in 2026. A victory in Delhi will not just bring BJP back into power but also rein in Janata Dal (United) in Bihar, weaken Union Minister Chirag Paswan’s hands and send a strong message to Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu who has recently been exercising power in the bargaining game, post the Lok Sabha setback for the party at the centre. While the BJP has steamrolled regional parties into irrelevance, sidelining the AGP, INLD, Jannayak Janata Party, and Janata Dal (Secular), fracturing the Shiv Sena and NCP and now has its sights set on diminishing the BSP and Biju Janata Dal,[2] AAP remains a fierce contender and is not one to be swept away easily.

The stage is all set: the political slugfest has begun. Both the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress blame the Aam Aadmi Party for the poor law and order situation, increasing pollution, and surging unemployment in the National Capital. In light of the alleged Sheesh Mahal and the Delhi excise policy scam, popularly known as the Liquor Scam, along with a host of other contentions, the Opposition parties claim that Delhi is in a state of vexation. Aam Aadmi Party, on the other hand, says that it has overseen unprecedented development, especially in the fields of healthcare (Mohalla clinics) and education and is confident that the people of Delhi will vote for the broom. What remains to be seen is the public sentiment.

Promises and Plans: What Each Party Brings to the Table

On the 8th of February, it will be known whether the partisan winds flow in favour of the populist agenda driven as part of a national push towards driving enterprise, national security and the Hindutva notion of the resurgence of Indic values, a civilizational reawakening, or reject the same in need for more welfare-driven and effective local governance, much of what South India has been able to achieve over the past hundred years.[3] However, it is concerning to note that the very welfare-driven governance has resulted in a slew of handouts instead of opting for and working on solutions that will have, if not permanent, a long-lasting impact.

This time, the BJP is using AAP’s own game to tackle them, a strategy they deployed in two states last year and won, rather unexpectedly. A myriad of revdiyan, or freebies, have been promised by the BJP to the voters of Delhi, quite ironically, as the party is known to have criticised such schemes as they are fiscally damaging. The Reserve Bank of India has recently warned against such schemes as they come at the cost of critical social and economic infrastructure. Some claim that the elections are being auctioned as the votes are going to the highest bidder.[4]

The Aam Aadmi Party has adopted a similar strategy by stepping into the BJP’s sphere by appealing to the religiosity of pundits and gurudwara granthis, a tactic commonly associated with the BJP. The Congress has addressed prevailing issues concerning the unemployed youth launching the ‘Yuva Udaan Yojana,’ aimed at supporting the unemployed educated youth of Delhi by providing them with apprenticeships and a monthly income of Rs. 8500. A common thread that binds all three parties is their endeavour to provide monetary benefits to women and senior citizens along with other schemes such as free electricity, health coverage and subsidized goodies.[5]

Delhi's Verdict: A Defining Battle Set to Transform the Political Arena

In the backdrop of what seems to be a bipolar contest between the Aam Aadmi Party and the Bharatiya Janata Party, the ramifications will be manifold. Delhi’s unique position as a melting pot of diverse cultures, welcoming people from all walks of life, makes its elections a microcosm of the national sentiment. A victory for the BJP could be interpreted as an endorsement of its national policies and leadership, consolidating its influence and bringing in a “double engine” government at the national capital. Conversely, a win for the Aam Aadmi Party would reinforce its governance model and could inspire similar approaches in other states. Congress, seeking to restore its former glory, is also in the fray. However, infighting within the I.N.D.I. bloc, particularly between the Congress and the Aam Aadmi party, has highlighted that the Mahagathbandhan has been severely fractured, with the TMC and Samajwadi party supporting the AAP but not paying heed to the “leading party” of the bloc.[6] Delhi's political arena is heating up as the city braces for the elections, with the three major players each bringing their unique flavours to the table.

The political landscape is set to be redefined as a prelude to 2025. It is not just a battle for votes: the verdict will reflect a future for a city that embodies the nation’s pulse. The real power is of the people, to cast their vote not only to select the future chief minister of Delhi but to direct the trajectory of the country. A wise decision in this high-risk election is not merely an exercise of franchise but an expression of what one wants, what one needs and what one stands for. The decision made in the capital will have an echo effect and will leave an indelible mark on the political landscape of the country. It’s not just about who wins; it’s about the message the electorate wants to convey to the rest of the nation.  

References

[1] Dhar, Manmohan. "Delhi Election: A Political Triangle." State Times, January 6, 2025. Accessed February 2, 2025. https://statetimes.in/delhi-election-a-political-triangle/.

[2] Kesari, Venkatesh. "Delhi Elections | Domino Effect of Arvind Kejriwal's Political Fate." Deccan Herald, January 26, 2025. Accessed February 2, 2025. https://www.deccanherald.com/opinion/delhi-assembly-elections-2025-domino-effect-of-arvind-kejriwals-political-fate-3374307.

[3] Worth, Robert F. "Narendra Modi’s Populist Facade Is Cracking." The Atlantic, February 2025. Accessed February 2, 2025. https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2025/02/modi-nationalism-demagoguery-limitations/681094/.

[4] Das, Krishna N., and Aftab Ahmed. "Clash of the Handouts as Modi's BJP Seeks to Reclaim Delhi after Decades." Reuters, January 22, 2025. Accessed February 2, 2025. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/clash-handouts-modis-bjp-seeks-reclaim-delhi-after-decades-2025-01-22/.

[5] "Delhi Assembly Elections 2025: Promises and Schemes Announced by AAP, BJP, Congress." The Indian Express, January 28, 2025. Accessed February 2, 2025. https://indianexpress.com/elections/delhi-assembly-elections-2025-schemes-aap-bjp-congress-9784317/.

[6] "Rahul Gandhi Calls Arvind Kejriwal 'Architect of Liquor Scam', He Responds." NDTV, January 29, 2025. Accessed February 2, 2025. https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/delhi-assembly-election-rahul-gandhi-arvind-kejriwal-liquor-policy-scam-sheeshmahal-architect-of-liquor-scam-sheeshmahal-rahul-gandhi-goes-all-out-on-7580258.

Image taken from: https://www.thequint.com/elections/delhi-lok-sabha-elections-bjp-sweep-not-forgone-conclusion-aap-congress

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