Written by: Riddhi Deokar and Sanchaly Bhattacharya
Image Source: Business Today
Introduction
The 2024 Lok Sabha election results have played a crucial role for the largest democracy as it manoeuvres a politically vulnerable international environment. The results have uncovered the democratic ideals of India, which were deemed to be suffering due to the alleged backsliding of democracy in the nation. By reviving these forgotten ideals, the 2024 verdict has projected India onto the world stage as a nation with uncompromising democratic values.
The election results have showcased how electoral strategies tend to exhaust their mobilisation capacities. This time, reminiscent electoral manoeuvres fell short of swaying the masses in the desired polarised direction. The results, additionally, are a glaring reminder of the fact that mixing politics and elections with religion expires as a feasible strategy, highlighting the fact that accountability toward the people, who remain mindful of every move of the state, is still placed at a higher pedestal than the vigour of the saffron.
This brief will provide an overview of the election results, covering major states and constituencies. Further, it would present a comparative state-wise analysis, underlining notable trends that have emerged. Lastly, the brief will articulate sentiments expressed post-election and highlight the impact a new coalition government would have on foreign ties and foreign policy pursued by India.
Overview of the Verdict
The 2024 Lok Sabha election results were declared on June 4th, revealing the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) securing 240 seats, falling short of 32 seats to secure majority power at the centre. The Indian National Congress (INC) secured 99 seats, putting up a fierce performance compared to its 2019 one. With the BJP falling short of votes to secure power at the centre, the formation of a coalition government with the support from Chandrababu Naidu of the Telegu Desam Party (TDP) and Nitish Kumar of the Janata Dal (United) (JDU) is in process. This coalition experience for India is anticipated to be different from the preceding ones the nation has witnessed.
The composition of the 240 seats can be understood by considering the election turnout in the major states and their subsequent analysis.
Regional analysis (State-wise)
Major states | Seats won by parties (2014) | Seats won by parties (2019) | Seats won by parties (2024) |
Andhra Pradesh | BJP- 3 INC- 2 Others- 20 | BJP- 0 INC- 3 Others- 22 | BJP- 3 TDP- 16 JNP- 2 |
Punjab | BJP- 2 INC- 3 Others- 8 | BJP- 2 INC- 8 others- 3 | INC- 7 AAP- 3 IND- 2 |
Rajasthan | BJP- 25 | BJP- 24 Others- 1 | BJP- 14 INC- 8 CPI(M)- 1 |
Karnataka | BJP- 17 INC- 9 Others- 2 | BJP- 25 INC- 1 Others- 2 | BJP- 17 INC- 9 JD(S)- 2 |
Gujrat | BJP- 26 | BJP- 26 | BJP- 25 INC- 1 |
Uttar Pradesh | BJP-71 INC- 2 Others- 7 | BJP- 62 INC- 1 Others- 17 | BJP- 33 INC- 6 SP- 37 |
Maharashtra | BJP- 23 INC- 2 Others- 23 | BJP- 23 INC- 1 Others- 24 | BJP- 9 INC- 13 Shiv Sena- 9 |
Odisha | BJP- 1 Others- 20 | BJP- 8 INC- 1 Others- 12 | BJP- 20 INC- 1 |
Madhya Pradesh | BJP- 27 INC- 2 | BJP- 28 INC- 1 | BJP- 29 |
West Bengal | BJP- 2 INC- 4 Others- 36 | BJP- 18 INC- 2 Others- 22 | AITC- 29 BJP- 12 INC- 1 |
Reading the results Andhra Pradesh, Gujrat, and Madhya Pradesh have differed less significantly than the 2014 and 2019 results. This time, in Andhra Pradesh, BJP has secured three seats, a better result than 2019. The poll results of Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, and Odisha have huge differences compared to the previous two election results. In Rajasthan, comparing the seats secured in the 2014 and 2019 elections, 25 and 24 respectively, in 2024, the BJP has secured only 14 seats, whereas the seats of the INC have increased to eight.
Interestingly in Odisha, in 2014, BJP only secured one seat, and in 2019 BJP got only eight seats, this time the number of seats that the BJP has secured is 20, which is a superior performance compared to the previous years. In West Bengal, there is a relative decline in the BJP’s stronghold, comparing its seats in the 2019 and 2024 elections.
The results in many states have deviated from the trend usually followed, making this election a canvas representing the diverse regional needs the ruling parties' campaign failed to address and an aspect that the competing regional parties and the INDI Alliance based their campaign on. (Ghosh, 2024) The results in Uttar Pradesh have been the principal trend deviant in this election, rendering the exit poll predictions incorrect by a considerable margin. The exit polls predicted the BJP's landslide victory in the state, securing around 65 out of 80 seats. (Singh, 2024) Although the result clashed with exit polls as the Samajwadi Party secured 37 seats, INC had six seats, giving the INDI Alliance 43 seats, while the BJP secured 33 seats.
BJP's defeat in Faizabad to SP’s Awadhesh Prasad came as the biggest shocker, rendering the temple exercise inefficient in generating a vote bank. The ousting of BJP’s Lalu Prasad can be attributed to various factors. The focus of the INDIA alliance on concerns of the minority intertwined with the unresolved issue of land compensation for locals considering the temple development, awarded SP the win. Three communities in the region comprise roughly fifty per cent of the electorate; OBCs, Dalits and Muslims were won over by the SP candidate who himself hailed from the Dalit Pasi community which has the maximum number of voters (Mishra & Verma, 2024). The sidelining of these communities by the BJP aided the INDIA bloc in securing this important win which enhanced their performance in this election but also reflected the limitations of the Hindutva vision.
The Rae Bareilly and Amethi victory proved significant for the Congress, allowing them to take back the constituencies they once lost. Rae Bareilly held a nostalgic value for the Congress as the party retained the seat since 1952 except for two terms, signifying the revival of Congress in the state and the continuation of the mother-son alliance.
Maharashtra proved to be another deviant from the trend followed, with BJP losing its stronghold in the state. Maharashtra was to make or break the BJP in the 2024 elections, by bringing the party to 9 seats from 24 in 2019, while its ally the Eknath-Shinde-led Shiv Sena won seven seats, reducing the NDA alliance to 17 out of 48 seats. The poor management of the Maratha quota issue by the state government paved the way for the Congress to take over the BJP failed as they failed to win any seats in the Marathwada. Dalit support constituted a large part of the vote bank for the BJP in the state for 2014 and 2019. In 2024 the Dalit vote swayed to the INDIA bloc due to their voicing concerns relating to the alteration of the constitution and the subsequent erosion of Dr Ambedkar’s ideals.
Trissur proved to break the drought for BJP in the southern state of Kerala, with Suresh Gopi securing a win. Although Tamil Nadu continues to be dominated by regional groups leaving the BJP with zero wins, the party celebrates an increased share in voting percentage in the state. Telangana results reflected the dominance of Congress over BJP, while the re-election of AIMIM’s Asaduddin Owaisi provides a sigh of relief for the Muslim minority of the nation.
Notable Trends Emerged in the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections
Regional parties have re-achieved prominence in this Lok Sabha elections, a notable trend. Driven by pressing local agendas and issues the assertive nature of regional parties has highlighted the importance of state-level dynamics in electoral politics, indicative of a more inclusive development of the country credited to a maturing electorate cognizant of the local needs but one that is simultaneously aligned to a national sentiment (Aulakh, 2024). The Telegu Desam Party in Andhra Pradesh, Janta Dal (United) in Bihar and the passionate Trinamool Congress (TMC) of West Bengal, which withstood an aggressive BJP campaign, all indicate stronger regional parties.
Another trend that fails to go unnoticed is the tactful employment of family legacies. The trend can be seen in Rae Bareilly with Congress’s Rahul Gandhi picking up after his mother Sonia Gandhi. Congress could be seen strategically placing Rahul Gandhi as a candidate for Rae Bareilly and not the constituency of Amethi. Mr Gandhi encashed the family legacy in Rae Bareilly and brought back Congress rule by defeating the BJP candidate Dinesh Pratap Singh. The electoral patterns in Tamil Nadu and Karnataka contribute to the trend of dominance of family legacies in the states. (Bhushan, 2024). Many perceive this trend negatively, questioning meritocracy and the survival of nepotistic electoral politics. While a few opine that in the larger scheme of things, the Rae Bareilly constituency and others contributed to the larger effort to restore democracy in the Indian nation.
Diversity in the Dalit vote is a major trend to address in the elections. As noted in the example of Maharashtra, the Dalit community has voted for the BJP and the Congress. They made the protection of the constitution an electoral issue while the former sidelined the minorities in its campaign leading to the diversity in the vote composition.
Economics superseded ideology. The INDIA alliance, especially the Congress party’s manifesto focused on youth, women, farmers, and dignity through social justice. (“Congress Manifesto,” 2024). The NDA alliance in its campaigns had fleeting mentions of these and spoke stately about the schemes they have already implemented. Observing the BJP manifesto, we see promises based more on continuing existing schemes. (“Bhartiya Janata Party Manifesto,” 2024). The Congress manifesto pitched the revival of democracy via social justice and equity as an electoral promise. With UP being a major deviant of the 2014 and 2019 trends, it becomes clear that the region, otherwise the Hindu heartland, was instead mobilized by economic needs over ideological effort.
Experts on the Election Results
Minority calculations were a major subject of discourse amongst various experts. The minorities were left out of the campaign and manifesto calculations of the BJP and were instead used to polarize the Hindu heartland even further. The Congress manifesto underlines priorities in line with the minorities, something they used in tandem with their agenda of saving democracy in the nation. The question of Hindu nationalism is another poignant point of observation in this Lok Sabha election. The result underlined its limitations in mobilizing a voter bank (Ahmed, 2024).
The 2024 election is hailed to have brought back the opposition. The real crux of a democracy lies in the deliberation and discussion in Parliament, where the opposition is expected to have a clear purpose of putting constructive criticism to government policies. However, the 2019 election results and consequent incidents of suspension of a few MPs by the Lok Sabha are understandably washed out of the basic premises of democracy. This time, the election behaviour of Indians signalled that there was a ‘rebirth’ of India’s democracy by bringing the proper check-and-balance system over the executives and legislators (Varshney, 2024). The election results expressed that people vote to defend constitutional values, especially affirmative action and citizen dignity.
Implications of 2024 election results on foreign ties
India undoubtedly attained a position at the high table on the world stage in the past few years. The penetration of India’s foreign policy ideals is credited to the BJP government’s tactic of bringing our underlying ideals to the world stage and ensuring their continuation, through ‘Vishwamitra’ or non-alignment. Although with the need for a coalition compromise the question of foreign policy remains pertinent for many analysts and academicians.
Experts opine that foreign policy will remain unchanged under the current coalition government unless its composition affects decision-making. Shyam Saran, former Foreign Secretary of India opines that in the current coalition, the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) will not be constrained from pursuing their foreign policy goals because their alliance partners, Chandrababu Naidu's Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal (United), or JD(U) do not seem to have any strong motives in that regard (Kumar, 2024). Apart from a possible reassessment of ties with China and Pakistan, experts feel that foreign policy continuity is likely even under a coalition government.
Conclusion
The 2024 Lok Sabha elections can be viewed from a plethora of lenses. Few declare the results to be a victory made up of defeats for the NDA alliance while a defeat that feels like a victory for the INDIA bloc. These elections, though, are an undoubted victory for democracy and a win for the people's vote, restoring their faith in the electoral process and the larger democratic infrastructure of the nation.
Elections, time and again, serve as a reminder of the necessity to review the progress of a nation not just through the economic lens but also from qualitative metrics of democracy, peace and social justice. These elections have also indicated a maturing electorate, firm on acquiring more than just basic needs. The 2024 elections have brought to the surface a change in the political composition of our nation, creating a seismic shift in the narratives put forth regarding the democratic balance of our country. Amongst all, democracy stood the test of time, hailing India as the largest and the most resilient democracy.
References
Bhushan, R. (2024, April 25). Lok Sabha elections 2024: How political families dominate India’s discourse. Hindustan Times.
Ghosh, J. (2024, June 4). 2024 Lok Sabha election results analysis by Jayati Ghosh on June 4, 2024. The Hindu.
Singh, N. (2024, June 3). Exit polls 2024: How political leaders reacted to pollsters’ predictions. www.business-standard.com.
Mishra, D., & Verma, L. (2024, June 6). SP Dalit leader who won Ayodhya targets BJP: ‘They did business in Ram’s name.’ The Indian Express.
Aulakh, M. P. R. B. G. (2024, June 5). Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Return of regional parties may smoothen Centre-State relations | Mint.
Bhartiya Janata Party Manifesto. (2024). Bhartiya Janata Party.
Congress Manifesto. (2024). Indian National Congress.
Ahmed, H. (2024, June 6). CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey: The three main takeaways. The Hindu.
Varshney, A. (2024, June 6). In the results of the 2024 elections, rebirth of the ‘idea of India.’ The Indian Express.
Kumar, B. (2024, June 5). What will coalition govt mean for Modi 3.0 foreign policy? Experts weigh in.
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