By: Taneesha Jain
The author is a second-year master's student of Diplomacy, Law and Business at Jindal School of International Affairs. She can be reached at taneeshajain02@gmail.com or 23jsia-taneesha@jgu.edu.in.
Above image: BSF Jawans Brave Floods, Guard Border in Waist-Deep Water in North Bengal. Source:https://thebetterindia.com/111850/bsf-border-security-force-north-bengal-soldiers-floods/
Abstract and Introduction
Climate change refers to the long-term alteration in the average weather patterns that define the world’s global, regional, and local climates.1 This phenomenon is largely fuelled by human activities, especially the burning of fossil fuels, which release heat-trapping greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide into the atmosphere. While natural processes also play a role, human actions such as deforestation, industrial activities, and farming significantly amplify these changes.
As for climate conditions, environmental and human life are affected, due to its far-reaching consequences. With its diverse geographical and topographical land, many vulnerable areas and communities are particularly at risk in India. Moreover, by the end of the century, it is estimated that India will experience a rise in overall temperature by 4.4 degrees Celsius. 2 This will affect the lives of the citizens by degrading food quality, destruction of homes, increasing diseases and a high frequency of extreme weather conditions. It may also lead to cases of illegal migration because of loss of economy and livelihood.
Furthermore, the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES)3 in a report titled “Assessment of Climate Change over the Indian Region,” published in June 2020, stated various threats of climate change in India. These threats encompass a warming Indian Ocean, altered rainfall patterns, and shifts in monsoon timing. Although rainfall overall may increase, many regions will still experience droughts. Coastal communities are at risk from rising sea levels, and the higher frequency of tropical cyclones means more frequent natural disasters. Furthermore, the report warns of reduced snowfall in the Himalayas due to rising temperatures, which will speed up glacier melting.
Climate Change and Military
The inclusion of climate change in Indian domestic policies has been gradual and limited. The discussions related to security often are dominated by conventional security challenges 4. However, the 2017 Joint Doctrine of the Indian Armed Forces labels climate change as a ‘non-traditional security’ issue, with potential implications for migration/displacement, disaster response, civil strife etc., thereby necessitating ‘security’ responses.5 This categorization highlights the potential implications of climate change for migration, disaster response, civil strife, and other security-related areas. The Ministry of Defence (MoD) is beginning to acknowledge climate change as a significant factor in its security considerations.
Additionally, the Indian military is becoming aware of climate security risks in the country for its operations and strategy formation. Based on several indicators such as references to the 2008 National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC), the government-sponsored Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment report, and statements made by several members of the administration, including those from the Prime Minister’s Council on Climate Change (PMCCC), Sahu (2017) concludes that climate change is securitized in the Indian context.6 Indian defence scholars have pointed out the need for interlinking climate change, security risks and military involvement in a triangular form. This nexus shall contribute to “climatizing moves (that are) symbolic, strategic, precautionary and transformative.” 7
Studying the Issue of Climate-Induced Migration In Sunderbans
Apart from the agricultural vulnerability, water scarcity and conflicts, health emergencies, economic impacts due to widespread destruction, relocation of communities residing near coastal borders, impacts on power generation and energy supply, international diplomatic issues, and climate politics, the biggest threat to border communities and the local population is the forced migration.
Climate-induced displacements have increased in numbers and magnitude worldwide. According to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre’s (IDMC) report, 23.7 million people experienced displacements in 2021 due to cyclones and floods8. India itself will witness a migration of 45 million people by 2050 due to climate disasters, which is three times the current number, making it the fourth-worst-hit country in the world because of extreme weather events.9 According to a study, the main reason that citizens, especially the local people, take such a harsh step is to escape poverty as their livelihoods and sources of income are destroyed by sudden climatic conditions.
For example, consider the Sunderbans, a cluster of low-lying islands in the Bay of Bengal, famous for its mangrove forests. It encompasses an intra as well as inter-country migration between India and Bangladesh primarily due to the land degradation, which renders it unsuited for cultivation, the principal occupation of the local communities. Environmentalists have noted a rise in water salinity due to coastal erosion and rising sea levels in this region, which compels the citizens of both countries to migrate. Whilst most of the relocation is domestic, a substantial fraction ends up moving from Bangladesh to India, constituting the largest single international migration flow. These people, apart from losing their means of living, lack legal status and protection as well as are prone to human rights abuses, and inadequate access to housing, healthcare, and education.
Responding to the Climate- Border Crisis
The climate crisis, often referred to as the migrant crisis due to the resulting mass migrations, elucidates the need for bilateral agreements in the Sunderbans. These agreements should focus on cooperation, information sharing, and joint initiatives to manage migration and support affected communities. In addition, regional involvement from government officials, civil society groups, NGOs, and the displaced communities’ involvement will lead to a cohesive solution at the grassroots level. Regional intergovernmental organizations like the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) and the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) could offer platforms where India and Bangladesh exchange ideas on governing climate migration.10 Such organizations can only benefit if geopolitical tensions between the two countries mellow.
Moreover, the stigma related to Bangladeshi migration, coupled with the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and the diverse rhetoric surrounding it, degrades the overall situation. It is also essential for the government to invest in infrastructure, housing facilities, improving agricultural scope, as it is the main occupation of the local people and enhanced warning systems.
On the other hand, citizens displaced by severe climatic changes often must change their livelihoods. For example, the Sunderbans community moving to Kolkata may struggle to find stable jobs, leading some to engage in criminal activities and illegal practices, which threaten national security. At the border level precisely, the influx of unlawful migrants from cross-borders, not only indicates poor border management but also exacerbates issues like human trafficking and other crimes among citizens. Therefore, it is crucial for the government and citizens to seriously address climate change's long-term effects on borders and national security. Geo-political tensions between India and Bangladesh may hinder discussions, but the consequences of ignoring climate change at the transnational level are severe.
Way Ahead and Conclusion
To conclude, climate regulation is crucial for studying border security at both national and international levels. Society, the scientific community, and businesses must collaborate to solve environmental problems at the state level. Political and economic factors also shape policies on climate change and border security and thus, it is essential to integrate these terms for national interests and policymakers. This involves investigating industrialization's long-term effects on the climate and adopting innovative measures to address local community challenges and develop solutions.
Plus, the Indian military must conduct a comprehensive risk assessment and audit of all the military instalments to minimize future losses at disaster-prone zones by analyzing weather patterns. Moreover, military personnel should also be trained to address climate change-related challenges, especially at the borders. This training can help them build more strategies and be able to assess situations properly. Though there is a lack of open discussions about security challenges due to climate change in India, adopting such practices can help address this situation effectively. The policy research focuses on the grey literature by think tanks, interviews with policy and security communities and indirect references to climate change by various institutions.11 This elucidates a need to bring this issue to both regional and national levels so that the country does not face any significant problems. The key to managing this threat is sincere and timely movement towards comprehensive risk assessment and risk reduction.12
Bibliography
What Is Climate Change? - NASA Science. (n.d.). https://science.nasa.gov/climate-change/what-is-climate-change/
R Krishnan et al, An Assessment of Climate Change over the Indian Region, (Singapore: Springer, 2020). Accessible at https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007%2F978-981-15-4327-2, Accessed on 09 July 2024
Jayaram, D. 2021a. “Climatizing’ Military Strategy? A Case Study of the Indian Armed Forces.” International Politics 58 (4): 619–639. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41311-020-00247-3
HQ-IDS. 2017. Joint Doctrine Indian Armed Forces. Headquarters Integrated Defence Staff, Ministry of Defence, Government of India. New Delhi.https://bharatshakti.in/wpcontent/uploads/2015/09/Joint_Doctrine_Indian_Armed_Forces.pdf
Sahu, A.K. 2017. The Securitisation of the Climate Change Issue: A Multisectoral Approach to Security. World Affairs 21(4): 26–37.
Chaudhary, A. B. R. (2022, December 19). Climate change fueling climate migration. OBSERVER RESEARCH FOUNDATION. Retrieved July 8, 2024, from https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/climate-change-fueling-climate-migration
Krishnan, M. (2023, April 19). India: Migration from climate change getting worse. dw.com. https://www.dw.com/en/india-migration-from-climate-change-getting-worse/a-65369043
India and Bangladesh must address climate migration together. (2024, April 16). Climate-Diplomacy. https://climate-diplomacy.org/magazine/environment/india-and-bangladesh-must-address-climate-migration-together
Jayaram, D. (2024). Shifting discourses of climate security in India: domestic and international dimensions. Third World Quarterly, 1–19. https://doi.org/10.1080/01436597.2024.2314003
IPCS. 2022. “Task Force Report: Six Questions on Climate Security for India.” Institute of Peace & Conflict Studies. https://www.planetarysecurityinitiative.org/news/task-force-report-six-questions-climate-security-india
India and Bangladesh must address climate migration together. (2024, April 16). Climate-Diplomacy. https://climate-diplomacy.org/magazine/environment/india-and-bangladesh-must-address-climate-migration-together
Gambhir, M. (2021). Climate Change and its Implications on India’s National Security. In CENTRE FOR LAND WARFARE STUDIES (CLAWS): ISSUE BRIEF: Vol. No. 281.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author (s). They do not reflect the views or opinions of Diplomania or its members.
コメント