By: Sujal Shah
Image source: BBC News
Introduction
Iran's recent presidential election marked a significant moment in the nation's political landscape, with centrist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian emerging victorious in a runoff vote against conservative rival Saeed Jalili. The election, held on Friday, had almost 30 million votes cast. Pezeshkian secured nearly 16.4 million votes, while Jalili garnered approximately 13.5 million.
This election followed a very low turnout on June 28, with more than 60% of Iranian voters abstaining from the hasty election to replace Ebrahim Raisi, who was killed in a helicopter crash in May. However, there was some disagreement surrounding the election. Approximately 275 notable activists and civil society representatives urged a boycott, expressing concerns about the voting system's integrity and the "complete elimination of opponents." Nobel Peace Prize laureate Narges Mohammadi, who is presently imprisoned, called the vote a "sham".
Pezeshkian and His Promises
Pezeshkian, recognized as a reform-minded contender, has made a number of bold promises that have inspired both enthusiasm and suspicion among Iranians. He has promised to loosen long-standing Internet restrictions and oppose police patrols imposing the mandatory headscarf on women, an especially divisive subject following the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody in 2022. Pezeshkian additionally pledged to include more women and ethnic minorities, such as Kurds and Baluchis, in his government.
In a move that has garnered significant international attention, Pezeshkian has also promised to work towards improving relations with the United States and reviving the 2015 nuclear deal. This commitment to diplomatic engagement represents a potential shift in Iran's foreign policy stance and has raised hopes for de-escalating tensions between Tehran and Washington. Pezeshkian has emphasized the importance of dialogue and negotiation in resolving long-standing disputes, signalling a willingness to break the diplomatic impasse that has characterized US-Iran relations in recent years.
However, the incoming president-elect faces hurdles in carrying out his reforming agenda, including his foreign policy goals. Hardliners dominate Iran's political structure, and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei retains ultimate authority. This power dynamic greatly limits the president's capacity to make broad reforms, particularly in areas involving ideology or foreign policy.
Pezeshkian's victory has been met with a mix of cautious optimism and scepticism both domestically and internationally. While some see his election as a potential harbinger of a more pragmatic foreign policy and social liberalization, others remain doubtful of any substantial change given the entrenched power of conservative factions within the Iranian government.
International Community and the Election Result
On the international stage, Pezeshkian's presidency can reduce tensions over the stalled negotiations. The international community has cautiously welcomed his commitment to diplomatic engagement and desire to resume negotiations. Western leaders, on the other hand, have reacted cautiously to his win, reflecting the complicated geopolitical dynamics at work. Iran's allies, notably China and Saudi Arabia, have sent greetings, with Chinese President Xi Jinping emphasising the two countries' long history of close relations.
The election results come at a time of heightened regional tensions, particularly due to the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza and Iran's support for various militant groups across the Middle East. Pezeshkian's ability to navigate these complex regional dynamics while potentially pursuing a more conciliatory approach with the West remains to be seen.
For India, Pezeshkian's presidency could provide an opportunity to deepen bilateral relations. For decades, the two countries have maintained friendly relations, with trade and connectivity at the heart of their cooperation. If Pezeshkian succeeds in reopening discussions with the West over the nuclear conflict, potentially leading to the easing of economic sanctions, this might enhance India's strategic interests in the region. New Delhi intends to make large investments in Iran, including $120 million for the Shahid-Beheshti Port in Chabahar and a $250 million credit line for infrastructure developments.
Conclusion
Despite the glimmer of hope that Pezeshkian represents for many Iranians yearning for reform, his presidency is likely to be fraught with challenges. The Iranian government remains largely controlled by hardliners and key institutions such as the parliament which is dominated by conservatives and ultraconservatives. Pezeshkian's ability to implement his reformist agenda, including his foreign policy initiatives, will be severely tested by these entrenched power structures.
Moreover, Pezeshkian's history and statements suggest a commitment to the fundamental principles of the Islamic Republic. During his campaign, he affirmed his recognition of Ayatollah Khamenei as the final arbiter of all matters of state, indicating that any reforms he pursues will likely be incremental rather than revolutionary.
In conclusion, Masoud Pezeshkian's election as Iran's president has kindled hopes for a more moderate approach domestically and internationally, the realities of Iran's political system and the global geopolitical landscape present formidable obstacles. His promise to improve relations with the US and revive the nuclear deal adds a new dimension to Iran's foreign policy outlook, but the path to realizing these goals remains fraught with challenges. As he assumes office, Pezeshkian will need to navigate the delicate balance between pushing for reforms and maintaining the support of the conservative establishment. His presidency may offer hope for those seeking change, but it remains to be seen whether this hope can materialize into tangible shifts in Iran's domestic and foreign policies within the constraints of its theocratic system.
Bibliography
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