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Diplomania
Oct 84 min read

New NATO Chief’s Visit to Ukraine, A ‘Future’ NATO Member

By: Nishtha Sadhoo


The author is a first-year master's student at the Jindal School of International Affairs. She can be reached at 24jsia-nsadhoo@jgu.edu.in


Image Source: Reuters


Introduction 

On 3rd October 2024, Kyiv welcomed Mark Rutte, the newly appointed Secretary-General of NATO. After assuming his post, Rutte chose Ukraine as his first official trip and pledged to rally Western support for Ukraine. He has reiterated NATO’s pledge to grant Ukraine membership, stating that “Ukraine is closer to NATO than ever before” and that “Russia on this issue has no vote and no veto.” These statements hold tremendous weight in the background of Russia’s full-scale invasion efforts in Ukraine, which have completed two years in February of this year. However, the upcoming US elections with the possible re-election of Donald Trump, and the perpetual barrier created by the alliance’s Article 5 guarantee (an attack against one of the alliance members will be considered an attack against the whole alliance) raise a question as to the substance of these claims.  


NATO: At the Heart of the Conflict 


During the 2008 NATO Summit in Bucharest, the alliance had declared the intent to make Ukraine and Georgia members. This was met with backlash from Russia, which has been vocal against NATO’s expansion in the former Soviet bloc. Russia has often cited that in the 1990s, the USA had pledged not to expand eastwards, as in the famous words of US Secretary of State James Baker III, “there would be no extension of NATO’s jurisdiction for forces of NATO one inch to the east.” This was a part of the diplomatic efforts after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the reunification of Germany in 1990, where the question of a unified Germany’s membership in NATO caused tensions between the two Cold War factions. While some state that this pledge was only in the purview of the fact that East Germany was part of the Warsaw Pact, Russia’s mistrust stems from the flurry of former Soviet bloc and Warsaw Pact states’ becoming NATO members in the 1990s and 2000s. With the intent of keeping NATO away from its neighbourhood, Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 as retaliation to Ukraine’s attempt to establish greater economic integration with the European Union, which turned into a full-scale invasion in 2022.


Outcomes of the Visit 


Rutte was welcomed amidst a major Russian drone attack, where the Ukrainian air force shot down 78 of the 105 drones but suffered from major damage in Kyiv, Odesa and Ivano-Frankivsk region’s power lines and equipment. Furthermore, Ukraine is suffering from personnel and weapon shortages and slow aid arrival, which Rutte acknowledged. In a joint conference with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Rutte stated that Ukraine’s security “matters for [NATO’s] security”, and by increasing investment and innovation, Ukraine’s weapon production capacity would be further developed. He also highlighted NATO’s ongoing attempts to “build a bridge” for Ukraine’s NATO membership, which includes monetary assistance of $44 Billion, increased security agreements, and the creation of a new NATO command for Ukraine to manage training and assistance.  

 

President Zelensky, in turn, requested increased Western support, noting that the US sent missile-equipped warships to shoot down Iranian ballistic missiles for Israel’s protection. As Ukraine does not possess any counter-defence against glide bombs launched from Russia through Russian aircraft, Zelensky stated that the solutions used in the Middle East conflict could also apply to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. He also discussed Ukraine’s “victory plan” with the Secretary-General, in the purview of the upcoming NATO meeting in Germany. 


Membership: Promise or a Pipedream?  


Mr Rutte, the former Prime Minister of the Netherlands, has been a long-standing supporter of Ukraine and has previously provided it with military aid, such as F-16 fighter jets. His selection is thus welcomed by Zelensky, who is looking for increased support from the alliance. However, a few factors challenge his promised support. The upcoming winter brings with it worry about energy infrastructure, which is persistently being targeted by Russian aerial attacks. Russian troops have also captured 18% of Ukraine’s territory and have made further advances in Eastern Ukraine. Donald Trump’s return to power poses another issue, as he has promised to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict “in a single day” and threatened to withdraw from NATO or hold back NATO’s funding and manpower. Monetary aid from European and American governments is also taking a downward turn, as countries worry about the increasing cost of support.  


Conclusion 


Kyiv awaits membership, as it views it as the only possible solution to further Russian attacks. Mr Rutte’s selection as Secretary General instils confidence in increased NATO support for Ukraine in the ongoing conflict. However, despite reassurances, Ukraine’s potential membership in NATO remains uncertain. About the US elections, Mr Rutte has stated he can work with whoever is elected as the new President of the United States. However, in the absence of any deadline for granting membership and solutions for persisting challenges, Kyiv is looking at a long wait to get a seat at the NATO table.  

 

Bibliography 


 

The views expressed in this article are those of the author (s). They do not reflect the views or opinions of Diplomania or its members.

 

 

 

 

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