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Diplomania
Aug 74 min read

A Pivotal Gathering: NATO's Future in Focus at the 2024 Summit

By: Suhani Jaggi



Thirty-two allies gathered together in the Mellon Auditorium in Washington D.C. from the 9th to 11th of July, 2024 for the NATO summit hosted by the United States. The gathering commemorated the historic 75th anniversary of the summit and also welcomed its thirty-second member, Sweden. The summit's importance was in the tenuous geopolitical context amidst which it was held, and it was an opportunity for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to reiterate his plea for greater support from NATO. The member nations also welcomed the succeeding NATO Secretary General, marking the dusk of a decade of commitment and service by Jens Stoltenberg to the alliance.


Solidarity with Ukraine: Unified Commitment


In light of the Russia-Ukraine war continuing its third year and fifth month, the key outcome of the summit was the grand support expressed towards Ukraine. Although not a member nation, the Ukraine agenda dominated the spotlight during the three-day summit, resulting in the Ukrainian Delegation returning pleased with the outcomes. NATO member nations have augmented military and financial support for Ukraine, pledging to provide military aid worth $43 billion over the next year.


The declaration also highlighted Kyiv's importance to the alliance, stressing that Kyiv is on an ‘“irreversible path” to gaining membership in the Western Alliance. However, the secretary general has emphasized that the membership would follow its terms and conditions, and will be on hold until the war with Russia is on. The US, Netherlands and Denmark announced they would supply the first NATO-provided F-16 fighter jets as military equipment. 


Absent Agenda: Gaza missing from the NATO talks?


In contrast to the attention on Ukraine, the war in Gaza was not a priority for most leaders at the summit.  From a slight mention of the cruciality of peace in the Middle East for the alliance’s security, the 38-point joining communique released took no mention of the Israel-Hamas war. The pillars of democracy and freedom have been the core of the bloc, and its silence towards Gaza mirrors its hypocrisy.


 

Turkey's President Recep Tayyip chose not to let the double standards of the West remain overlooked. He reportedly emphasized in his speech, "What happened to your Western values in Gaza?" Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez demanded a similar unity and consistency to be expressed by the alliance in Gaza as in Kyiv. “If we’re telling our people that we support Ukraine because we defend international law, we must do the same for Gaza. If we demand respect for international law in Ukraine, we must demand it in Gaza, as well,” Sanchez advocated.


The NATO summit highlights the US Dominance in the geopolitical space. America’s priorities are the world’s priorities. Exempting Gaza from the talks is not only reflective of Biden’s foreign policy towards the Middle East but also how America’s defence capabilities allow it to let its priorities take centre stage and compel its Allies to puppet around.


Heightened Defence Budget Expectations


Wary of the increased focus on the Indo-Pacific post the presidential elections, European policymakers recognize that European nations of the alliance need to increase their defence capabilities. With high criticism of Europe’s shortfalls in its military budget, the region will continue to face extreme pressures from NATO to step up its military spending.


Against the backdrop of the 2014 Wales summit declaration to increase military budget spending to at least a 2% benchmark of the GDP in the next decade, the NATO summit was a focal point to review this progress. Only 23 member nations are expected to reach or exceed the 2% GDP target this year, and with the likelihood of Trump winning the elections, countries will need to step up their military spending to match up with the pressures of a critical President and the possibility of waning American support.


Last leg of Biden’s Re-election Run 


Biden’s hefty grip on his candidacy, delineating his final embrace before his historic exit, was observed during the summit. Hidden behind his foreign policy and determination towards a united NATO, his gaffes highlight a contrasting narrative. Despite a strong demeanour in his speeches, his missteps like referring to Vice President ‘Kamala Harris as ‘Trump’ and introducing President ‘Zelensky’ as ‘Putin’, show a failed attempt at picking up the broken glass pieces from the Presidential debate. Though in isolation, these small moments underscore the challenges to maintain a flawless public image and reveal the anxieties of his tough candidacy

 

The Road Ahead for NATO


The possibility of Trump returning to the presidential seat marks a threat to the sustenance of NATO. He has declared his intentions to withdraw from the alliance, also illustrating declining aid to Ukraine. In one of his outlandish speeches, he stated that he would encourage Russia to attack NATO allies who do not pay their dues as a part of the alliance.


NATO’s future is not expected to remain as it is as the alliance is experiencing some of the biggest changes since the Cold War and its future remains hazy. Responding to the proclamations of Trump’s Ukrainian intent, President Zelensky appeared on a video by the Voice of America calling for a more sensitive approach regarding Trump’s foreign policy towards Ukraine, seeking continued support amidst the predictions of a Republican USA. Despite efforts made to Trump-proof the alliance, aiming to limit the potential damage caused by Trump’s second term, only the aftermath of the Presidential Elections will decide the alliance's fate.


References

House, W. (2024, July 10). FACT SHEET: The 2024 NATO summit in Washington. The White House. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/07/10/fact-sheet-the-2024-nato-summit-in-washington/


Nato. (n.d.). Washington Summit Declaration issued by NATO Heads of State and Government (2024). NATO. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_227678.htm



Staff, A. J. (2024, July 11). What has NATO promised Ukraine – and did Gaza figure in summit talks? Al Jazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/7/11/what-has-nato-promised-ukraine-at-summit-and-did-gaza-figure-in-talks


President Sánchez highlights the agreements reached at the NATO Summit. (2024, July 9). https://www.exteriores.gob.es/Embajadas/washington/en/Comunicacion/Noticias/Paginas/Articulos/20240712_NOT01.aspx


Siebold, S. (2024, July 3). NATO members pledge 40 billion euros in military aid for Ukraine, diplomats say. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nato-members-agree-40-billion-euro-financial-pledge-ukraine-diplomats-say-2024-07-03/



Hordern, A., Wickham, A., & Flatley, D. (2024, July 23). Trump Advisers Float Making NATO Allies Spend More on Defense. Bloomberg.com. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-23/trump-advisers-push-even-higher-target-for-nato-defense-spending


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