By: Taneesha Jain and Vansh Pincha
Photographer and Source: Gavriil Grigorov/AFP/Getty Images
Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin in Pyongyang in a photo released by Russian state media, on June 19.
Introduction
The Russian-North Korean strategic engagement is not a recent affair, it goes as far back as the formation of North Korea during the aftermath of World War II, through the Soviet Union. Despite Russia continuing the legacy of the USSR in supporting UNSC sanctions against North Korea over the nuclear program in the mid-2000s, the two countries eventually drew closer. The key events in their relationship are highlighted by ninety per cent debt relief for North Korea by Moscow in 2012 and Kim Jung Un visiting Vladivostok in his armoured train in 2019 to meet the Russian President to advance their relations. The North Korean leader visited eastern Russia in 2023 for the bilateral summit. During the tour, he visited the Russian airbase to inspect the latest hypersonic missiles and nuclear-capable bombers.
The day, 19th June 2024 marked the first state visit of Putin to Pyongyang since 2000, after nearly a quarter of a century. The fancy Aurus limousine ride of the leaders was not the only takeaway from Russian President Valdimar Putin’s visit to North Korea. The leaders exchanged super expensive gifts, including the Russian Limousine, Pungsan dogs- a local breed of North Korea, tea sets and busts, showcasing their close acquaintanceship. This rare overseas trip for Putin to North Korea and Vietnam occurred amid Russia’s ongoing conflict with Ukraine and the West.
Both countries signed a treaty involving various aspects- from politics, trade, economics and investment to security cooperation. Kim Jong Un said, “The relationship between our two countries is at the highest point.” Meanwhile, Putin called the new alliance a “watershed moment” in bilateral relations.
Background and Abstract
Putin’s arrival comes at a time of heightened tension in the Korean Peninsula and Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) between North and South Korea. Additionally, the visit was less than a week after the Summit of the Group of Seven (G7), held in Italy, wherein, Western countries agreed to use interest gained from frozen Russian assets to give Ukraine a $50 billion loan admitting its ongoing conflict with Russia. The move was described as “theft” by the Russian President which would “not go unpunished.” Moreover, the meeting was held four days following the Peace Summit held in Switzerland, in which more than 100 countries and organizations had gathered to establish peace between Ukraine and Russia, there was no Russian representation at the summit.
Considering these preceding events, we will be analysing the various aspects of the visit while understanding its importance. Due to current trends in the world of geopolitics, it becomes paramount to take cognizance of this rare visit. The questions that lie before us are, what does this new rammed-up partnership between the two countries mean for the world? What are the reasons that have influenced these developments? Will this partnership be sustained or is it just an outcome of desperate actions to counter the US and the West?
Reasons for the visit and change in geopolitical trends
Over the recent years, Putin has been left out of many global gatherings and discussions of issues. This political isolation of the leader was a result of Russia’s attack on Ukraine in 2022, followed by the issue of an arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court over war crime charges in 2023. After which Russia desperately is looking for new partners, while brushing up its old relations with the countries. The recent visit of the Russian President is an attempt to restate itself and to display that it has not been fully isolated.
The Russian President’s visit to Pyongyang indicates a significant shift in Russia’s diplomacy towards North Korea. This sudden shift in policy could be seen in March when Russia used its position to veto the UN Security Council to end the mandate of a panel monitoring North Korean sanctions violations. Yet, Russia once backed UN sanctions that explicitly prevented North Korea from exporting weapons. Simultaneously, North Korea backed Russia in the Ukrainian issue. During the meeting, Kim Jong Un said, “Our full support for the Russian government’s special military operation in Ukraine to protect its sovereignty, interests and stability of its territory.”
Furthermore, due to its engagement in Ukraine, Russia is struggling with the supply of weapons and ammunition, as its stockpile has seen a steep decline. Since Russia’s involvement in Ukraine, the former has sought to find new sources of weapons due to the arms supply deficit and Western sanctions. The US has previously many times accused Moscow of purchasing artillery shells and rockets from Pyongyang, through the established railway infrastructure between the countries. According to a US statement in February, Russia has received more than 10,000 shipping containers – the equivalent of 260,000 metric tons of munitions or munitions-related material – from North Korea since September. In addition, much North Korean missile debris has been found on the Ukrainian battlefield. Both Russia and North Korea have rejected the claims.
Key outcomes of the visit
The globally isolated leaders, by conducting the unanticipated visit, projected a feeling of belongingness and increased amicability towards each other. Apart from sharing presents, the main outcome of the meeting was the signing of the ‘comprehensive strategic partnership pact.’ The overarching goal was to collaborate against what Putin quotes as the ‘imperialist policy of the United States and the satellites.’ One of the key elements of the pact includes a clause akin to NATO’s Article V, which states “an immediate and mutual assistance” in the events of aggression against any nation. To elaborate, Article IV of the pact between two countries states that should either country “get into a state of war due to an armed aggression” the other “shall immediately provide military and other assistance with all the means at its disposal.” However, the exact definition of “armed aggression” remains unclear, also leaving a mystery if nuclear weapons are included in the “all the means at its disposal” as stated in the pact.
Additionally, it includes the arms arrangement in which North Korea provides Moscow with critically required munitions for its war in Ukraine in exchange for economic assistance and technology transfers that could enhance the threat posed by North Korea’s nuclear weapon and missile programme. However, Putin’s claim of direct arms supply to Kim is observed as a contradiction to his earlier decision of backing the UNSC for sanctioning North Korea and destabilising nuclear weapons and missile programmes in Pyongyang. By doing so, Russia might equip North Korea which potentially threatens the US, Japan, and South Korea. Furthermore, this treaty can be considered a collective effort of both countries to boost themselves against the US and its allies in various aspects.
Subsequently, some analysts view this action as a desperate attempt by Russia to respond to the Western actions which support Ukraine. On the other hand, they have also highlighted the unpredictable nature of the North Korean leader, while underlining that this alliance is in its nurturing phase, preventing the articulation of the implications. Nevertheless, it is imperative to comprehend that this development has not only enhanced Russian and North Korean ties but also increased the capabilities of China and Iran due to a shared discontent towards the USA. It signifies how the isolation of the Russian leader at the global level has formidable outcomes for the West.
Conclusion
This event has caused global concern, especially in the USA and multilateral institutions such as NATO as they fear that Russia might support North Korea in terms of its nuclear and missile programs. Consequently, the latter nation’s neighbouring country, South Korea is also likely to face the repercussions as international investors might withdraw significant investments and agreements due to the unstable political atmosphere. Apart from their unease, the USA elucidated its opinion about the potential impact on China. During an overseas trip, Air Force General C.Q. Brown commented on this development by saying China might undercut its leverage over its neighbouring countries. This treaty could also lead to friction and instability between Russia and China.
Additionally, the new strategic partnership between Russia and North Korea has the potential to make significant changes in East Asia and further in the Indo-Pacific region. Moreover, the growing China-Russia-North Korea axis based on mutual interests, integrated investments, strategic defence, and technological cooperation, threaten the US and Europe’s security. This clearly outlines the world into two formations with different ideologies, interests and policies targeting each other. While China may benefit from weakening US influence, it also risks losing control over North Korea and friction with Russia. Overall, this complex situation presents opportunities and challenges for each player on the world stage with potential repercussions for the global community.
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